The market rally is weakening heavily as indicated from several momentum indicators, telling us that this rally is nearing its end. But with that said, NYSE breadth is still quite solid today, telling me that we may see a strong quick push higher before a significant top is formed. That will again present another good shorting opportunity. Once the market tops, the S&P should fall quickly to the low 800s, and possibly much much further.
Bottom line: the market rally is ending and I'm shorting heavily on any rallies from here.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Gold Dropping in 5 Waves; Jan. 6, 2009
Above is a 30min gold futures chart from this morning showing what looks like two 5 wave declines. Also, the EUR/USD has dropped below a strong support level indicating that gold and silver's next declining phase is underway. My gold target is in the low $600 area.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Market Falls, But There's Still Underlying Strength; Jan. 5, 2009
The market is down today with the Dow leading the way with the biggest losses. However NYSE breadth is actually positive with more up volume than down volume and the advancers outpace the decliners. This is bullish. Plus, several sectors are actually up today with energy being the biggest gainer. So as it stands now, this does not look like any significant declining phase beginning, but rather just a pause in the uptrend towards the 950-1000 area.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
The Rally Looks Very Corrective; Jan. 3, 2009
The rally from early last month looks very corrective and is waning in underlying strength already. Although it appears the market will continue to rally in the coming days into the 950-1000 S&P range, it can fall at any time, and it should fall hard when it does. With that in mind, I'd rather just short rallies instead of trying to get long this market and against the larger trend, which I see as down still.
Friday, January 2, 2009
The Rally Continues; Jan. 2, 2009
The rally continues to push higher, but on very light volume through the past few trading days. The key is what will happen when the big players re-enter the market sometime next week. 919 is a key level in the S&P and a strong break and close above that level should see the index headed charging for 950-1000. Unless the rally halts and sells off soon to relieve the dragging bearish divergence on all three momentum indicators (see chart above), then the more likely the reversal will be final and lead to new lows beneath 740.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)