S&P Futures Should Continue Decline this Week

The chart on the left has OHLC bars and the chart on the right just using closing levels.  From an EWP standpoint, the sub-components of Minor wave 1 make more sense when analyzed on a closing bases (right chart).  But normally, I want to use OHLC bars to analyze wave counts so I'm tracking the short term action on OHLC bars (left).

The market declined as expected on Friday after the jobs numbers came out.  The sharp rally in the last few minutes of trading Friday was most likely short covering from folks who did not want to stay short over a long weekend.  But I highly doubt it was any meaningful buying .  As a result, selling should resume, and do so heavily, on Monday.  Because of that, I used the late rally Friday afternoon to get more short.  The wave count shows the S&P futures in a wave (iii) of 3 right now which means heavy relentless selling should rule the day in the foreseeable future.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures

The persistence of this rally caught me off guard a bit but fits well as a wave (ii) counter trend move. Several of my intraday indicators show the market overbought here. I'm not sure we'll get a breakdown this morning, but ideally the rally should stall here and perhaps break down 30 minutes prior to the close. The jobs report should then trigger wave (iii) down tomorrow morning. This count remains valid as long as 1992.75 is not broken. Although even if it is, we could still work the 3 wave rally off the wave 1 low as a wave 2 correction. More after the jobs report Friday...


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures

This wave count using closing points on the 1hr time frame is tracking well.  Friday's fractured market, as I pointed out, was a good indication that a top was in place as Monday and Tuesday this week has shown significant weakness.  And after two days of heavy selling, the bulls managed only a modest float rally higher.  Not good for the bulls.  Friday is the big jobs report in the morning, then on to the 3 day Labor Day weekend, so I expect the market to probably float around sideways to slightly up Thursday, then huge moves Friday morning after the jobs report, then volume and volatility should taper off significantly after a few hours of trading as traders take off to enjoy the long weekend.

The wave count suggests a major declining phase is underway and that I should favor the downside for my trades in stocks and their derivatives.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.