Tuesday, March 24, 2015

EURUSD Poised to Fall

EURUSD looks like its round of 2nd wave rallies is coming to an end. On the 30min chart it printed new high followed be a new low. This might be a subtle clue that resistance at this level will hold.

If the count is correct, it's dollar bullish so look for the dollar to recover and move higher across the board soon.



Thursday, March 19, 2015

4 Hour EURJPY

From an Elliott Wave perspective that EURJPY looks about as close to perfect as you're going to get. This offers up at great risk/reward ratio, so I'm jumping in short with the stop just above the wave ii (circle) high.


GBPUSD Update

Here's an closeup of cable from yesterday

GBPUSD 1 HOUR


Aussie Looking Weak Across the Board

YAussie pairs look weak across the board, along with the euro and pound which I posted yesterday. If my AUDJPY count is right, this puppy is setting up for some big selling ahead.

The daily chart shows that it's been trading in a range for long time so a break of that range to the downside would be ideal for this count. But risk is so tight here at the wave 2 extreme that shorting now is also a viable strategy.

AUDJPY 6 HOUR






Cable Setting up for a Nice 3rd Wave Opportunity

Following the Fed action today, the dollar pullback sharply, but I anticipate that will be fully reversed in short order.  So I'm looking to get long the dollar and the GBPUSD is providing a good opportunity to do so as the Daily and 4hr charts have a nice 3rd wave setting up to decline.





PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

EWI's Forex Freeweek is Here

I'm taking some time off from the markets so this is perfect timing.  I always recommend taking advantage of free resources from reliable sources.  Now you can access all the charts, analysis, videos and forecasts from EWI's trader-focused Currency Specialty Service right now through noon (EST) Wednesday, Oct. 24.
 
Happy trading!
 
Todd

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Stock Momentum Pointing Down; Dollar Bottomed

Since my last post, stocks have pulled back modestly, but there is no 5 wave decline yet so it's tough to call a top here.  Using the simplist of momentum indicators, the MACD has a double top and the averages are trending down, suggesting at least the short term should result in further stock weakness.  Until we get a 5 wave move, it's tough to make a call either way here.  But the sum of the evidence seems to favor the bearish side slightly since the gains over the past few months seem extended, the VIX is extremely low, and two topping price bars have been put in place on the daily chart.

Note: I always recommend taking advantage of free resources from reliable sources.  An Elliott Wave Principle website, WaveTrack, is offering free access to their Elliott Wave Compass report until October 7th, 2012.  Take advantage, wavers!



I normally focus on the euro and not the other majors, but the euro is not giving me a clear signal here and the British pound is.  On the daily chart you can see a big outside reversal candle followed by daily candles with long top-wicks suggesting a lot of selling pressure.  Today the pound has faltered so far suggesting the bears are taking control.  Now I know the outside reversal candle did not occur at the absolute top so some people may disagree with me here.  But with all the selling pressure coming in after the formation, it's close enough to the top for me to get me to short.  I'm short the euro and the pound right now since the evidence supports that a US dollar bottom has occurred which should put pressure on these european currencies.  A 5 wave decline soon, in either the euro or the pound, would be welcomed even more.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.