Friday, November 25, 2016

Stock Market Analysis

Stock Market Analysis

The stock market has been quite a mess the past year or so with with choppy sideways-to-up price action that it has had me on the sidelines for the most part.  I have been trying to trade individual stocks through options trades, and focusing on forex as a result.  The one thing notable that has occurred recently is the price action surrounding the US presidential election.  On election day, the overnight session so a huge drop in the markets when Donald Trump appeared to be the victor.  But when the US traders woke up the next day, they quickly bought up the oversold market and carried it to new highs from the previous trading day.  This was also done on huge volume of course.  So, market players are telling us that although there was initial fear of a Trump victory based on potential instability in the US, once the panic subsided market players saw the Trump win good for the economy and stock market.  Whether that is true and will play out, we don't know obviously.  But the market is pricing in positive economics and earnings for at least 6 months out.

So we have a huge reversal higher on a giant volume spike from back earlier this month.  The low is 2028.50 for that day.  To me, that is a key level for the bulls.  For the long term, as long as price remains above this level, the market is overall bullish 6 months out from the day you're in.  There will be pullbacks along the way, but long term investors would be wise to go long the markets long as that level remains intact.

There are several signs of a short term pullback in stocks across the board, as well in Japanese yen pairs in forex, so I think if buyers are patient they can wait for that pullback to get long some stocks that may be to pricey right now.  I am personally getting short the USDJPY and GBPJPY in forex.


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Monday, October 3, 2016

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Short SYMC & Long SRCL

Short SYMC option spread

Symantec (SYMC) has been on a tear for a long time, but after Minor wave 3, we see some choppy and weak rising off the wave ((a)) low.  This is a topping structure and indicative of a ((b)) wave.  Once complete, a sharp wave ((c)) down should take place, pulling prices to the $22.60 - $24.00 range to complete Minor wave 4.  So I'm hitting it short with a put spread that will cover earnings postings early November:

Buy SYMC Nov 18  23/26 put spread at $1.19
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Long SRCL

On flipside, Stericycle Inc (SRCL) appears to have completed an Intermediate A-B-C correction to the downside.  After a sharp gap lower, the stock has trickled down to new lows but not in a convincing fashion.  Downside momentum appears to have become exhausted and a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern may be forming.  A long signal triggered on my custom indicators so I'm hitting it long here with a call spread to target a confluence of Fibonacci retracement levels of wave (C) and the entire A-B-C move at the $95 area.  Here is the trade:

Buy SRCL Nov 18  75/90 call spread at $6.24

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

S&P Futures Wave Count

S&P Futures

The stock market and forex spot have been quite signal free ans opporunity free for about a month.  But with the US presidential election heating hp, and traders back their desks after summer break, I'm expecting things to pickup.

The S&P appears to be in the early stages of a manor bull run, although only 3 waves up have printed so far, so the bull run is far from confirmed.  In the short term, look for (c) of ((2)) to pull price down to around the 2100 level. Price action around that level should give us a clue of what is next.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Friday, September 2, 2016

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Heavy Short on Small Caps

TZA Long Options Signal

The TZA is an ETF that triple shorts small cap stocks.  So, needless to say, it's a wild security.  As a result, I'm playing this small, but can't resist the opportunity because if I'm right, it can easily result in a 100% - 300% profit on a call option spread.

The TZA has been oversold for a while and has spiked higher at the beginning of the year, only to fall back down fairly quickly as well.  However, the choppy and slow grind lower the past two months is indicative of a waning downtrend, and so a sharp reversal is on the horizon.  Waiting for a buy signal is still key, and I got one a few days ago with a close above the signal line.

TZA Wave Count

Due to what the TZA consists of, and it's lack of liquidity, it's not exactly the best medium to count waves.  It's probably better to analyze the Russell (@TF).  But looking at the TZA on the hourly time frame, you can see a decent wave count suggesting a long wave ((v)) in place.  Most likely there will be a shot lower to complete wave ((v)), but that should quickly be met by a reversal higher.  I am targeting the $32 area just above the previous 4th wave.  The setup and risk/reward ratio is well worth giving this wild security a shot on the long side (so short small caps):

Buy TZA Oct 14  27.5/32 Call Spread at $0.98


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Closed GBPJPY Long at 528 Pip Profit

The stock market is just a mess of low volatility and general apathy.  I do not want to read too much into the waves or price action with this kind of movement.  The summertime lull of trading officially ends after Labor Day so I expect some solid moves to reprice the market to appropriate levels in the days/weeks following Labor Day.  So some good moves should occur as September gets underway.  Until then, I am focusing on my options trades and the forex trades I detail below.


GBPJPY Long

The British pound took off just like I projected, and the GBPJPY and GBPNZD were nice mediums to use to take advantage of this rise.  I entered the GBPJPY at 131.72, and it is sitting at 137.00 right now, and since I'm still long the GBPNZD I want to close the GBPJPY now to lock in profits.  The GBPJPY has outperformed the GBPNZD so far, and it is at the 23% Fibonacci retracement level, so it's possible it will take a pause here and let the GBPNZD catch up a bit.  Here is the result:

GBPJPY entry at 131.72 and close at 137.00 for 528 pip profit.


GBPNZD Chart

Speaking of the GBPNZD.... the rally is a complete mess, but is trending upward and still has room to move.  Fibonacci targets of resistance are at 1.83940 and 1.8549, although I still see hitting the 1.8600 - 1.8700 range before considering a top.  I entered long on this trade at 1.8061 and it is currently at 1.8216 so I'm at a respectable 155 pip profit, but don't want this to turn into a losing trade, especially after a nice profit on the GBPJPY.  So I'm moving my stop loss here to breakeven:

GBPNZD entry at 1.8061, moving a stop to breakeven at 1.8061

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PREVIOUS POST WITH ORIGINAL TRADE SETUP

British Pound - GBPJPY

British Pound - GBPNZD

The British pound has been getting pounded since Brexit but a bottom has been formed and a sharp rally is near. I have two confirmed buy signals on the daily charts, so a big trade is in order. The pairs with confirmed buy signals are the GBPJPY and the GBPNZD.

GBPJPY entry at 131.72 with profit target of 139.00
GBPNZD entry at 1.8061 with profit target of 1.8800

I only have catastrophic stop losses in for both as I want it to have room to run for the next few days or weeks without constantly getting stopped out from over-trading and overthinking the move higher.


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Signals - Shorting UFPI

Shorting UFPI

Universal Forest Products Inc. has had a hell of a run but is now stalling in a 4th wave correction. The test of the recent highs does not deter me, and I feel actually presents a nice shorting opportunity. Wave (4) is unfolding in a double combination correct with a target of $97, although I will probably get out closer to $100.  Here is the trade:

Buy UFPI Oct 21  110/95 put spread at $4.97


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Thursday, August 18, 2016

British Pound Set to Soar

British Pound - GBPJPY

British Pound - GBPNZD

The British pound has been getting pounded since Brexit but a bottom has been formed and a sharp rally is near. I have two confirmed buy signals on the daily charts, so a big trade is in order. The pairs with confirmed buy signals are the GBPJPY and the GBPNZD.

GBPJPY entry at 131.72 with profit target of 139.00
GBPNZD entry at 1.8061 with profit target of 1.8800

I only have catastrophic stop losses in for both as I want it to have room to run for the next few days or weeks without constantly getting stopped out from over-trading and overthinking the move higher.


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Elliott Wave S&P Futures

S&P Futures

The market has followed my projected path (red lines more or less).  I don't think a top will occur until 2200 is hit. It's summer time and super slow so expect the market to float around for a few more weeks.  I do have confirmed short signals in the Nasdaq 100, Dow and S&P cash indexes on the 130 minute charts. But I don't think a decline will start until 2200 is tested. in the S&P futures.  I'll be back when something happens that matters.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Monday, August 1, 2016

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Closed NSP at 51% Profit

Closed NSP


NSP dropped 8% this morning after posting earnings so I closed my short position at a nice profit. NSP ended up dropping over 14% later in the trading day so in hindsight, my closure of this put spread was premature.  However, my trading strategy has rules in place for taking profits, and my profit target was hit at 8% drop level this morning, so I took profits then.  This profit level I use tends to act as a solid bounce point, sometimes permanent, so over the long run it will make more money to use it.  Here is the trade summary:

Sold to close NSP Aug 19  70/80 put spread at $6.25 
Bought at $4.13
Profit of $2.12, +51%

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ORIGINAL TRADE SETUP...

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Short NSP

Insperity Inc. (NSP) has been on a huge monster rally the past several weeks but it has become quite choppy and is starting to roll over to the downside.  Today's sharp pop is just an exhaustion rally with the tired and tapped out bulls throwing everything they have at it today for one final push.  The next move of consequence should be to the downside.  I show a large Intermediate "flat correction" unfolding with today's rally part of wave (B) which should soon give way to a strong impulsive decline for wave (C) towards Fibonacci support at the $66.72 level (38% Fibo), which is also near the previous Minor wave 4, another typical draw for larger degree corrections.  So I went short with a put spread.  Here is the trade:

Buy to open NSP Aug 19  70/80 put spread at $4.13


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Closed NSP This Morning

Closed NSP


NSP dropped 8% this morning after posting earnings so I closed my short position at a nice profit.  Trade details to come shortly...

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ORIGINAL TRADE SETUP...

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Short NSP

Insperity Inc. (NSP) has been on a huge monster rally the past several weeks but it has become quite choppy and is starting to roll over to the downside.  Today's sharp pop is just an exhaustion rally with the tired and tapped out bulls throwing everything they have at it today for one final push.  The next move of consequence should be to the downside.  I show a large Intermediate "flat correction" unfolding with today's rally part of wave (B) which should soon give way to a strong impulsive decline for wave (C) towards Fibonacci support at the $66.72 level (38% Fibo), which is also near the previous Minor wave 4, another typical draw for larger degree corrections.  So I went short with a put spread.  Here is the trade:

Buy to open NSP Aug 19  70/80 put spread at $4.13


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Monday, July 25, 2016

Elliott Wave S&P Futures Signals

S&P Index Chart Signals

In my last post I projected a selloff the next day. The next day resulted in 8 S&P futures points being sold off. That is not nearly what I had expected.  However, the decline did not alleviate any of the bearish signals in place, on multiple time frames, and multiple different markets. And today the sell signals have spread to the S&P and Dow cash indexes on the 130 minute charts as you can see you above.

Elliott Wave S&P Futures Signals

My above wave count may be a bit aggressive. I think the market will go sideways and then rally somewhere surrounding the Fed announcement. That should mark the end of a five wave EWP rally.  

There are a lot of fibonacci levels on the above chart, but the important price levels are 2200 – 2207 which should cap the rally. Then I see the market declining to 2167 before potentially finding a bottom.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Intermarket Divergence Signals Selloff Tuesday

S&P, TF and EMD Charts

Just a quick note to add to my bearish signals in place.  The market is taking longer than usual to decline after confirming a signal, but at today's close there was a noticeable intermarket divergence between the S&P, Russel and S&P MidCap futures indexes as you can see from the charts above.  The S&P made a new high while the TF and EMD failed to even come close to doing so and have declined.  Breaking below the previous swing low if the Globex session would help confirm a top is in and that the market is poised for a selloff Tuesday.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Stock Market Analysis - More Sell Signals Confirmed

VIX Chart

The VIX has not also confirmed a sell signal on the 130min chart, signaling that the upcoming decline in the S&P will be much larger than 20 points. Now I am expecting a 35-40 point minimum decline from where the top is registered.  However, that is only a minimum decline level, it's just a starting point.  It has only printed three waves in on this rally so a strong decline to confirm that it was only a three wave rally could be a sign that something much bigger is happening to the downside.


Nasdaq 100 Chart


The Nasdaq 100 is starting to get in on the fun too as it has now confirmed a bearish signal.  The S&P has yet to confirm a bearish signal on the index itself, however the VIX has confirmed bearish stock market moves on both the 30min and 130min charts.  So a stock market decline is near.


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Closed Remaining GBPNZD Position at 165 pip Profit

GBPNZD chart

The GBPNZD shot higher last night and hit my final target of 1.8300.  It has pulled back sharply in the London session, but could still continue higher from here.  My objectives have been met so I am out of the trade.  Here are the final results:

1/3 Long at 1.8135 and exited at 1.8300 for 165 pip profit
1/3 Long at 1.7982 and exited at 1.8125 for a 143 pip profit 
Normalized: 143 + 165 = 308 x 66.7% = 205 total pips 

GBPNZD

The GBPNZD is still popping nicely and the second 1/3 position is at a 143 pip profit so I closed that position and I'm leaving the other 1/3 position in to target 1.8300.

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POSTED JULY 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals GBPNZD

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I'll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300
Stop loss 1.7690

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POSTED JULY 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

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POSTED July 6, 2016

GBPNZD chart

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM's sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don't want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here's the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)
Profit target is 1.8900
Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Closing Half.GBPNZD at 143 pip Profit


GBPNZD

The GBPNZD is still popping nicely and the second 1/3 position is at a 143 pip profit so I closed that position and I'm leaving the other 1/3 position in to target 1.8300.

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POSTED JULY 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals GBPNZD

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I'll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300
Stop loss 1.7690

_____________________________

POSTED JULY 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

_____________________________

POSTED July 6, 2016

GBPNZD chart

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM's sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don't want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here's the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)
Profit target is 1.8900
Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200

POSTED July 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)Please support the blog and like this post :-)


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

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