Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Intermarket Divergence Signals Selloff Tuesday

S&P, TF and EMD Charts

Just a quick note to add to my bearish signals in place.  The market is taking longer than usual to decline after confirming a signal, but at today's close there was a noticeable intermarket divergence between the S&P, Russel and S&P MidCap futures indexes as you can see from the charts above.  The S&P made a new high while the TF and EMD failed to even come close to doing so and have declined.  Breaking below the previous swing low if the Globex session would help confirm a top is in and that the market is poised for a selloff Tuesday.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Stock Market Analysis - More Sell Signals Confirmed

VIX Chart

The VIX has not also confirmed a sell signal on the 130min chart, signaling that the upcoming decline in the S&P will be much larger than 20 points. Now I am expecting a 35-40 point minimum decline from where the top is registered.  However, that is only a minimum decline level, it's just a starting point.  It has only printed three waves in on this rally so a strong decline to confirm that it was only a three wave rally could be a sign that something much bigger is happening to the downside.


Nasdaq 100 Chart


The Nasdaq 100 is starting to get in on the fun too as it has now confirmed a bearish signal.  The S&P has yet to confirm a bearish signal on the index itself, however the VIX has confirmed bearish stock market moves on both the 30min and 130min charts.  So a stock market decline is near.


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Closed Remaining GBPNZD Position at 165 pip Profit

GBPNZD chart

The GBPNZD shot higher last night and hit my final target of 1.8300.  It has pulled back sharply in the London session, but could still continue higher from here.  My objectives have been met so I am out of the trade.  Here are the final results:

1/3 Long at 1.8135 and exited at 1.8300 for 165 pip profit
1/3 Long at 1.7982 and exited at 1.8125 for a 143 pip profit 
Normalized: 143 + 165 = 308 x 66.7% = 205 total pips 

GBPNZD

The GBPNZD is still popping nicely and the second 1/3 position is at a 143 pip profit so I closed that position and I'm leaving the other 1/3 position in to target 1.8300.

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POSTED JULY 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals GBPNZD

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I'll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300
Stop loss 1.7690

_____________________________

POSTED JULY 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

_____________________________

POSTED July 6, 2016

GBPNZD chart

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM's sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don't want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here's the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)
Profit target is 1.8900
Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Closing Half.GBPNZD at 143 pip Profit


GBPNZD

The GBPNZD is still popping nicely and the second 1/3 position is at a 143 pip profit so I closed that position and I'm leaving the other 1/3 position in to target 1.8300.

____________________________________________
POSTED JULY 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals GBPNZD

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I'll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300
Stop loss 1.7690

_____________________________

POSTED JULY 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

_____________________________

POSTED July 6, 2016

GBPNZD chart

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM's sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don't want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here's the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)
Profit target is 1.8900
Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200

POSTED July 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Monday, July 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Adjusting Stop and Target GBPNZD

Elliott Wave Forex Signals GBPNZD

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I'll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300
Stop loss 1.7690

_____________________________

POSTED July 7, 2016

GBPNZD chart

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM's sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don't want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here's the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)
Profit target is 1.8900
Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200

POSTED July 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

VIX Stock Sell Signal Confimed

VIX Chart

Stocks got hit with some selling pressure at the open and the VIX spiked after already exhibiting oversold for a while (green paint bars in chart).  The VIX spike and solid close above the signal line confirms a stock market sell signal is in place.  Technically, it still has about 3 minutes before the bar closes and officially confirms the signal, but it's far enough off the signal line that I'm confident it will hold.

This is a 30min chart, so the pull back in stocks should be 20+ points.  If the market ignores the signal in the short term and continues higher, I'm sure larger time frame VIX stock market sell signals will confirm as well.  And I'll post them here as they hit.  Either way, get ready for a short term pullback of 20+ within the next 2 days.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Friday, July 8, 2016

S&P Index Analysis

S&P index chart

I just wanted to drop a quick note on something I'm seeing in the S&P cash index. You can see my custom indicators at the bottom which tracks signals in all of the S&P 500 stocks. The top indicator has a yellow histogram showing how many stocks are oversold minus stocks overbought, which stands at 173. Although this is a very high number, it can stay oversold for a long period of time. So next, I look at the bottom indicator which tells me how man stocks have CONFIRMED. a bearish reversal minus those with bullish reversals.  You can see that there are 157 more confirmed bearish stocks. This is an extremely high number and predicts a pullback in the S&P very soon, either later today or early next week. This is on a 5min chart so the decline may only be 10 points or so, but if bigger timeframes start showing me bearish confirmations then this could be predicting a much larger reversal is coming.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Thursday, July 7, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Adding to GBPNZD Position

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Futures - ES

ES Chart

On the daily chart, my projected forecast has played out as expected. And on the intraday charts, my sell signal for 20+ points also materialized. But now I have no signals or bias as the market is at a fork in the road at current levels. Staying under 2120 keeps a bearish outlook on the table, but a break above 2120 opens the door for Minor wave 3 to run significantly higher. I'm neutral until the market makes a decisive move from here.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Building Long Position in GBPNZD

GBPNZD chart

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM's sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don't want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here's the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)
Profit target is 1.8900
Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Friday, July 1, 2016

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Short NVDA

Elliott Wave Option Signals

NVIDIA (NVDA) is in the middle of a major bull run that should last several months if not years.  However, the shorter term picture shows an Intermediate degree wave (1) ending, and a wave (2) in the works.  More importantly, and more desirable, is that a Minor wave C down is about to get underway.  C waves are third waves and so they are impulsive and very strong.  I expect this stock fall around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $41.47 before looking for any meaningful bottom.  Here is my short trade:

Buy to open NVDA Aug  40/47 put spread for $2.09

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Thursday, June 30, 2016

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Short NSP

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Short NSP

Insperity Inc. (NSP) has been on a huge monster rally the past several weeks but it has become quite choppy and is starting to roll over to the downside.  Today's sharp pop is just an exhaustion rally with the tired and tapped out bulls throwing everything they have at it today for one final push.  The next move of consequence should be to the downside.  I show a large Intermediate "flat correction" unfolding with today's rally part of wave (B) which should soon give way to a strong impulsive decline for wave (C) towards Fibonacci support at the $66.72 level (38% Fibo), which is also near the previous Minor wave 4, another typical draw for larger degree corrections.  So I went short with a put spread.  Here is the trade:

Buy to open NSP Aug 19  70/80 put spread at $4.13


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Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Elliott Wave S&P Futures and VIX Analysis

VIX Analysis

The 30min chart of the VIX has been triggering a buy signal for most of the week as you can see from the green paint bars in the chart.  However, the official buy signal was not triggered until today when price closed above the signal line.  This is a short signal for the S&P.  Since it's a 30min chart, it usually means at least a 20 point move that will occur within the next few days.  You can see how accurate and forward looking this indicator can be by looking at the VIX sell signal confirmed early this week which signaled the large rally we've been engaged in all week.  Now the VIX is signaling the stock market's rally is ending, or has ended, and will pullback 20+ points soon.


S&P Futures

The wave count shows an impulsive rally that is incomplete.  Wave ((4)) is most likely unfolding which means it's possible some boring price action may be ahead of us the rest of the week. I do expect a quick new high for wave ((5)) eventually, and that will be followed by a sharp decline.  The VIX sell signal I mentioned above supports this.  Depending on structure and magnitude of that decline, it will help confirm my long term bullish count, or if perhaps something much more bearish is unfolding since the Brexit vote.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave S&P Futures


Elliott Wave S&P Futures

Although fundamentally and logically it does not seem accurate to think that the decline from last week is over, the wave count certainly suggests that it is.  There are signs both ways that build a logical case, so I don't want to get too into the weeds on where the market is going long term.  For the bullish case, the wave count, and current rally strength, support a long sustained bullish move.  On the other hand, I think it's unlikely that the S&P drop over 100 points in just a couple days and then bottom and shoot higher.  Usually tops and bottoms to big moves are a "process" that takes a while.  They tend to not be a quick "event".  Also, a "Flat Correction" is a sideways correction that is usually part of a 4th wave, not a wave 2.  2nd waves tend to be sharp and deep.  So although the count looks good, it's not really what I'd expect to see for a second wave.

So the longer term may be a bit fuzzy, but what is clear though, is that for the short term, the market is still quite strong and bullish.  There are not signs of the rally letting up.  So I will remain a bull until I see some weakness and signs of a reversal.


S&P Cash Index

On a side note, I just wanted to point out how forward-looking my custom indicators really are.  Yesterday, you can see that my indicator registered over 170 stocks in the S&P with confirmed buy signals.  This was accompanied by choppy, and hard fought, price action sideways-to-down during that period.  Then, as the signals declined, which usually means the stocks have since bottomed, reversed, and have shot higher therefore alleviating the overbought condition and no more registering a signal, the stock market as a whole shot higher about 40 points.  I use this indicator, which is comprised of several custom indicators, to help make my stock selections as well.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Short ULTA

Short ULTA

ULTA confirmed a short signal on my custom indicators and has a completed 5 waves that should accompany such a signal.  Since wave (3) at Intermediate degree is over, a long 4th wave should now unfold.  It should make it to at least $220.22, even if it's just a triangle correction, but it could possibly continue lower to fill around $215.  Here is the trade I made near the close today:

Buy to open ULTA Aug 05  217.5/237.5 put vertical at $5.75

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

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