Tuesday, May 19, 2015

AUDUSD 124 Pip Profit


Well that worked out nicely.  There was a quick 124 pip drop since my last post calling for a bearish move lower soon.  Prices certainly have room to move a bit lower, but support could firm up a bit here and the move lower has been sharp.  I'm taking profits here and looking for the next big move.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Sunday, May 17, 2015

AUDUSD Overbought, Recent Selling Could Signal Major Top


The latest push higher from the AUDUSD 4hr chart created a divergence between price and the RSI, suggesting the rally off the .7550 level is exhausting.  This exhaustion is also confirmed on my own indicators as they are showing the AUDUSD is way overbought on the short term timeframe, and approaching overbought on the longer timeframe.


I don't like counting corrections as there are so many EWP variations, and it's very difficult to predict which one is unfolding at any given time as they can continue to morph into combination and combination.  So I usually just look to confirm that it is in fact a correction, and I try to find a 5 wave move in the direction of the correction since C waves typically end corrections, and C waves are impulsive.

Here on the AUDUSD 1hr chart we do see a 5 wave rally into the high which established the RSI divergence shown on the 4hr chart.  .8040 looks like a good shorting level with a tight stop for aggressive traders at .8055, or at .8067 for less aggressive traders.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Thursday, May 7, 2015

EURGBP Collapsed as Projected


The pair fell as projected and achieved the .7300 rather quickly.  I'm flat this pair now and waiting for the unemployment news tomorrow before stepping back in to analyze the markets again.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

EUR/GBP Topping


The EURGBP is very stretched at this point and the 5 wave rally accompanied by RSI divergence is sending a strong signal that a nice pullback of 100+ pips is coming very soon. I'm targeting the 7300 area since that's just below the previous 4th wave and also round number support.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Sunday, April 26, 2015

EURUSD 30 Min. Sunday April 26, 2015 3:46 PST (GMT -7)


The EURUSD has pushed again to a new high, busting my forecast.  It's still rallying in a corrective manner so the key is to look for tops and selling opportunities.  The price is consolidating in a possible triangle right now and since triangles lead to thrusts and reversals.  So, I'm looking for an initial move higher to the 78.6 Fibonacci level at 1.0923, or around 1.0900 round number resistance for a top.

Before I get short I want to get confirmation first.  For that I'd like to see some type of reversal price pattern, like bearish engulfing candle, shooting star, etc.  In addition, a nice close below 1.0800, which has been a resilient level the past couple weeks, would also be a good sign a top is in and the bears have regained control.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Monday, April 20, 2015

EURUSD Looks to Have Topped as Projected


The EUR/USD has appeared to have to topped as projected last week.  It has followed the channel resistance well so far.  A nice close beneath the previous low will also break down the upward sloping channel at 1.0710.  A nice close beneath that level should trigger heavy selling pressure with the wave ii) high remaining intact.  Once we get a convincing move downward I will restructure the chart and channels to the downside.  Look for lower levels immediately from here.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Thursday, April 16, 2015

EURUSD 30min


Looks like I was too early on the calling an end to the euro's correction so I had to relabel my wave count.  The rally is in choppy overlapping waves so I have little doubt this is a correction.  There is a confluence of resistance from the 61% Fibonacci level and the hasty channel I drew at 1.0837 that should cap the rally.  We might get some volatility tomorrow morning with CPI data coming out, so a nice shot higher and reversal lower would be a good sign a top is in.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.