Saturday, December 12, 2015

S&P in Wave C Down


Looks like wave C is finally getting underway and has plenty of room to the downside.  Many of my momentum indicators on the 4hr and Daily charts are firmly down.  However, on a short term basis, 30min charts, the market is oversold.  The structure of the decline suggests further levels will be achieved before any meaningful bounce occurs so my bias remains bearish.

I drew some fibonnacci retracement levels for the move up from ((x)) to B to get an idea of where the market may pause and bounce.  I'm looking for around the 78% level at 1914 to conclude wave ((iii)), but 3rd waves can extend well beyond what's expected so by no means am I trying to get long there.  It's just an area I'll look to take some profits and perhaps lighten up some risk.

The trend remains firmly down as long 2090 is not broken, but preferably I'd like to see 2055 remain intact to keep the series of lower highs in place.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Thursday, November 26, 2015

GBPAUD Long (Forex)


If you look at the daily GBPAUD chart it is clear that the pair is in a solid uptrend.  The grind off the high at the 2.24 area is clearly corrective.  Price has formed a nice double bottom and is moving strongly and impulsively higher.  I see a clear continued move higher in this pair and like going long since the long term trend is up still.  If I'm wrong, look for a top near the confluence of Fibo retracement levels in the 2.1126-2.1518 range.  But I feel this pair could still move significantly higher.

When trading this pair, keep in mind it can get very wild so protective stops should be wide and therefore proper position sizing is key to proper risk control.  In addition, this cross can get really wide spreads up to 15 pips, so be aware of the time you trade it as the Aussie and London sessions tend have the widest spreads for this pair.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Rally Getting Tired?


It's tough to make a strong case against the S&P rally since it keeps defying all odds and floating higher and higher.  But from a technical analysis standpoint, I am skeptical of higher levels at this juncture.  The wave count is still consistent with a continued decline towards 1800 before resuming another strong uptrend.  This is contrary to seasonal positioning as the "Santa Claus" rally would be getting underway next week and would not support this wave count.  So I'm cautious on both sides ending the year and prefer to day trade this market and not swing trade at the moment.


One thing I have been watching is the action of the small caps (Russell 2k) relative to the overall stock market (S&P).  Up until a few weeks ago, the small caps were lagging the overall market quite a bit.  But recently, the small caps have shot higher and are attempting to close the gap.  I think that small caps still lead the way for the overall market as they are a good risk barometer, but still nothing tradeable here, it's just another thing to watch to keep you honest when trading the market.

Also, although the Nasdaq as a whole is keep pace with the S&P, major tech stocks like Amazon, Microsoft and Baidu are showing signs of exhaustion, which could be the early signs of a pullback as well.

Conclusion: I don't like this fractured market behavior and the apparent exhaustion of some major stocks that also can be seen as risk-appetite indicators.  In addition, the wave count off the wave A low is very corrective looking with its overlapping waves.  However, the market appears that it just wants to move higher regardless and it's tough to try and fight that trend. So I remain cautiously bearish, but am looking for only day trades on market indexes, and also for shorts in individual stocks such as Microsoft, LinkedIn, and Baidu.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Sunday, November 1, 2015

S&Ps Ready to Decline



Needless to say, I've been caught off guard by the extent of this rally and I keep trying to call tops and am getting hammered.  I don't see much gas left in the rally tank so I'm here again projecting a top, at least short term.  The rally counts nice as two 5 wave moves for rally waves (a) and (c) within ((z)), that should complete a very deep wave B.

I have propriety indicators that are very good at indicating overbought and oversold markets, and when price closes back within the overbought or oversold level, it usually marks at least a short term extreme.  Then a reversion to the mean occurs.  Friday's bearish close closed back underneath the overbought extreme, so a reversion to the mean of about 70 S&P points is likely to occur.  When you add that the decline also confirms severe bearish divergence on various momentum indicators you can make a strong case for a decline of significance starting soon.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

S&P Futures 1hr



This correction higher is going on way too long to keep calling it a wave ((iv)).  I simply analyzed and labeled the chart according to a price closing basis, where waves ((iv)) and ((v)) completed several weeks ago, completing Primary wave A.  This long choppy slop sideways to up since then is Primary wave B.  Which, by the way, should be concluding soon as it is possible to count the final rally higher as an impulse wave from numerous different perspectives.

Primary wave C down should get underway quite soon, perhaps as early as this upcoming week.  C waves are 3rd waves, and impulsive, so it should be quite a strong affair downward.  I'm looking to add to my short positions on a topping formation and/or strong move down on solid volume.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Friday, September 25, 2015

S&P Futures


Not much to write about as the S&P's have been consolidating sideways for several weeks, waiting for the decline to a new low for wave ((v)) or 5.  It's certainly not pretty, but the count remains valid and the sideways chop can break down into a WXY combination correction, with the X wave being a triangle.

I still like the overall bias being down and for the wave ((iii)) low to be broken before any meaningful rally will occur.  So I continue looking for shorting opportunities for day trades, and holding short for swing trades.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Friday, September 11, 2015

S&P Futures Triangle Continues




The S&Ps continue to consolidate and wrap up a triangle.  Although not ideal, and enough to make an EWP purist pull their hair out, the above triangle patterns are valid.  Don't get too caught up in technical rules and guidelines at this point, the important element here is that the market is not rallying impulsively off the lows on the year and it is moving sideways after a large move down.  Triangle, or consolidations, are simply pauses in the preceding trend.  In this case, the preceding trend was down, and hard.  So the market will thrust lower to new lows on the year once this consolidation is over.

Wave E finishes triangles and they are usually the result of a news event.  Next week we have CPI, Retail Sales, and some FOMC stuff later in the week.  Since it's Friday today, and we're ending the triangle pattern, it's quite possible we'll just chop sideways all day today, and possibly Monday until we get that news event for a sharp pop and then massive reversal lower.  But keep in mind, the news event doesn't have to be a scheduled event, it could be anything...something can happen in China, Europe, or also in the US that's unexpected.

The bottom line is that I'm positioning myself for a sharp thrust to new lows on the year, which should occur within a week or two.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.