Thursday, May 26, 2016

S&Ps in Sideways Chop


I wanted to give a quick update based on my post yesterday since I called for a sharp decline soon. The sideways chop in price action and the overbought/oversold indicator showing even on both sides tells me we are probably in a 4th wave. If so, a sharp and quick move higher should end the rally from the past few days to complete the 5th wave higher, and then lead to a sharp reversal of 30 or more S&P points.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

S&P Futures Update

PRIMARY COUNT

S&P Futures Update Primary Count

The S&Ps have been a mess to trade and count outside of day trading small time frame intraday charts.  My primary count now has a Minor 1 completed, with the choppy overlapping decline the past few weeks as an (a)(b)(c) leg of wave ((w)) within a combination correction.  The reason I feel this correction will unfold as a combination is that it is very sideways and choppy, which is not consistent with a completed 2nd wave (for Minor wave 2).  2nd waves tend to be sharp, and deep, not sideways and choppy.  Plus, wave ((x)) higher has unfolded in 3 waves which completed at today's close.  As you'll see later in this post, my proprietary indicators suggest a sharp move lower is coming very soon, so this outlook also fits nicely in this count as the market needs to decline very soon in wave ((y)) of 2.

ALTERNATE COUNT


The alternate count is certainly viable, although more unlikely in my view.  This count suggests a Minor wave 3 up is just getting started yet momentum indicators are already at, or near, overbought levels.  Also add the characteristics of this decline and it is not indicative of a second wave as I previously mentioned.  Regardless, it's still a viable count and therefore it should at least be considered.

CUSTOM INDICATORS


I haven't been posting much the past few weeks because I was on travel, and I have been working on using my custom indicators to analyze the S&P 500 index.  I have been able to create these two indicators which tell me:

1) how many stocks have overbought/sold and are pending reversals (histogram)
2) how many stocks have confirmed reversals (light blue line)

These indicators are one of the most forward looking indicators you will find, and works extremely well on daily stock charts, and also pretty good on forex spot.

So, in the chart you can see a major extreme occurred yesterday as 165 stocks hit bearish signals (red line) and only 5 stocks hit bullish signals.  The histogram shows the difference between the two with a 160 stock bearish advantage out of 500 stocks in the index.  This is significant for a 5min chart, and one of the highest I have ever seen.

Stocks can remain overbought and oversold for extended periods of time so what's important is to see how many stocks have reversal confirmed.  For this, I look at the light blue line.  We see that yesterday the extreme came with a difference of bullish to bearish stocks at 118 stocks confirming bearish signals.  At this time, I was looking to get short, and did get short where I was eventually stopped out.  At today's open, the market has not resolved its overbought indications, so the rubber band is stretched.  This morning, the market moved higher at the open, and pushing even more stocks into overbought territory, with a steady flow of stocks confirming bearish moves throughout the day, as the market just traversed sideways.  The fact that there are so many bearish stocks confirming moves lower for two days and the S&P has not declined to alleviate that pressure tells me that the stock market is about to selloff hard and soon.

The stock market is overbought short term, and I expect a large selloff to occur early tomorrow or Friday at the latest.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Closed IR, EXP and ITW

Quick trade update as this morning's decline pushed some positions down to my target levels:

Closed IR at $3.07, opened for $2.03 for 51% profit

Closed EXP at $3.84, opened for $3.47 for 11% profit

Closed ITW at $2.55, opened for $1.91 for 34% profit


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Closed RPM, LQD, MMM, MIK and DVY

I have been swamped the past two weeks and haven't been able to put up any posts, and won't be able to put any detailed posts until next week.  But I did want to update my positions quickly for the record as a few positions have hit my targets.  I also opened 3 new positions today as well:

CLOSED POSITIONS

Closed RPM at $1.75, opened for $1.50 = +17%

Closed LQD at $1.27, opened for $0.94 = +35%

Closed MMM at $3.88, opened for $4.02 = -3%

Closed MIK at $2.45, opened for $2.00 = +23%

Closed DVY at $1.52, opened for $1.15 = +32%

OPENED POSITIONS

Bought to open AFL (Aflac, Inc.) June 17. 65/70 put vertical at $1.49

Bought to open IR (Ingersoll Rand Plc) June 17. 62.5/67.5 put vertical at $2.03

Bought to open HRB (H&R Block, Inc.) June 17. 20/23 call vertical at $1.00


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Saturday, May 7, 2016

Elliott Wave Futures Signals - S&P Index Futures

S&P Index Futures

I am a bit unclear on the S&Ps as they do not have a nice wave count and price structure that fit well with my wave count to be honest.  I do feel in the short term, the market still has some pullback to do, perhaps to the 38% or 50% Fibonacci retracement levels before launching to the upside again.  There is still a large disparity between bearish signals and bullish signals in the market based on my custom indicators, with 92 stocks bearish and only 3 stocks bullish.  So I don't think the bearish pressure has been alleviated yet, so I still think there's room to the downside.  And if you want to keep it simple, the series of lower lows and lower highs the past couple weeks remains intact.  Until that is broken, we should be looking for lower levels in the short term.

One note: Friday, the stock market closed very bearish according to my custom indicators, despite a strong bullish move at the end of the day.  There is heavy bearish pressure on the market, despite such a modest rally, and I feel that will resolve itself on Monday with a sharp shot lower fairly early on.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Short LQD and RPM

Short LQD

The investment grade corporate bond ETF (LQD) has had an extraordinary run the past several weeks.  But that run is now faltering and has triggered, and confirmed, a bearish signal on my custom indicators.  The wave count suggests a 5 wave rally is complete, and that a sharp wave ((c)) down is on its way.  I am targeting $118.60 as it is targeting the area of the previous 4th wave, and is also 23% Fibonacci retracement.  It can certainly far much further than that considering the huge run it has had the past several weeks, but trading discipline will have me stick to my strategy, which works, and the target is the $118.60 level.  Here is my trade:

Bought LQD put vertical spread June 17  117/120 at $0.94



Short RPM

RPM International Inc. has also had a nice run, almost a straight line rally as a matter of fact.  But you can see that the rally is now faltering and due for a correction.  This stock triggered a short signal which was confirmed by my custom proprietary indicators along with showing a 5 wave rally complete.  This stock should continue lower in wave ((c)) towards $48.10, and probably at least break $48.00 before I will exit.  There is no desirable spread strategy here so I'm going with a single put only.  Here is my trade:

Bought RPM put single June 17 at 50 for $1.50 (added entry price late) 


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Friday, May 6, 2016

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Closed MSI for a 102% Profit

Closed MSI for a 102% Profit

Motorola tanked hard at the open after a poor earnings report last night. I exited the trade at the open since it well exceeded my target level when it was down almost 6% and I didnt want it to whilsaw to the upside like my MIK position did. But MSI continued lower towards -10% before find a floor.  Regardless, it exceeded my profit target and me a nice 102% profit.  Here is the trade summary:

MSI June 17. 67.5/75 put vertical bought at $2.24 and sold at $4.52 for 102% profit

See original post with trade setup here

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Went Short EXP, ALB and MIK Today

I like three wave counts that were accompanied by confirmed short signals today.  Below is the list of the charts and trades I made:

Elliott Wave Options Signals Short ALB

Bought to open ALB June 17  60/67.5 put spread at $2.54


Elliott Wave Options Signals Short EXP

Bought to open EXP June 17  65/75 put spread at $3.47


Elliott Wave Options Signals Short MIK

Bought to open MIK June 17  30 put single at $2.00


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Closed GBPCAD long for 337 Pip Profit

Closed GBPCAD long for 337 Pip Profit

GBPCAD Rallied nicely since I hit a long trade on the pair. The signal was from a daily chart so the stop was wide, and therefore I only took on half a position size on the trade.  Regardless, I closed it today at a 337 pip profit. It will probably continue towards my initial target around 1.8700 but I am good taking profits right now before the Asian and London sessions get under way and pose a risk of a sharp downward reversal eroding the profits I already obtained.  Here is the trade summary:

Half long at 1.8318, closed at 1.8655 for 337 pip profit

See original post with trade setup here

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Monday, May 2, 2016

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Short ACN

Short ACN

Accenture PLC (ACN) is correcting a large 5 wave rally in wave (2).  The correction should be in wave C, which is a strong impulsive wave.  I expect it to take this stock to the previous 4th wave and Fibonacci retracement level at $107.  Here is my trade:

Buy to open ACN June 17  105/115 put vertical for $2.95

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Closed CTL for 30% Profit

Closed CTL for 30% Profit

I tried getting out of this position Friday at $1.95 but it's not a very liquid option market and it didnt't execute. Price has hit my target area in my proprietary indicators so the short signal has ended even though the wave count suggests the decline is not complete. I want out and closed the position at $1.80 even though the stock will probably still drop to at least $30.  Here is the trade result:

CTL put vertical May 20. 29/23 bought for $1.38 and sold for $1.80 for a 30% profit

See original trade setup here

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Friday, April 29, 2016

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Long GBPCAD

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Long GBPCAD

The pound has been showing overbought signals on the smaller timeframes in seceral pairs which made me reluctant to get long on this pair in this trade. But the daily chart confirmed a bullish signal over a week ago and has bullish divergence on the RSI, and a nice wave count showing a major bearish move is complete. I still want to be cautious on this big trade though, so I'm only going half long:

Half long at 1.8318
Stop loss at 1.8000
Profit target at 1.8700

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Signals - Closed ARW for 31% Profit

Closed ARW for 31% Profit

Arrowhead Electronics (ARW) did not have the greatest setup in my view, but was still good enough to take a shot at it at half position. The stock dropped to 38% Fibonacci retracement and bounced a little at a 31% profit and I'm happy with that so I took my profits Nd am walking away. Here was the trade:

Closed ARW put vertical $3.09 for a 31% profit (see original post with trade setup here)

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Elliott Wave S&P Futures

Elliott Wave S&P Futures

Just a quick note on the S&P's.  You can see that my last forecast of price movement has played out well, at least so far.  The market has not been able to get off the ground and so the bulls seemed to throw in the at the end of the trading day to account for the selloff.  The overnight Globex session saw markets tumble from the Bank of Japan surprise decision and the US market cash session appeared immune to it as it rallied the futures off the lows and into positive territory most of the day.  But by the end of the day, the bears roared back and pushed the market lower through last night's lows.

Price hit the lower channel line support I labeled and has bounce so far.  That channel support should hold if the bulls want to retain control.  My proprietary indicators are still firing off a lopsided amount of short signals to bullish signals at 140 bearish and only 7 bullish. So the market is overbought and ripe for a pullback.  I'm patiently waiting for a signal to get short.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Short MMM

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Short MMM

3M Company (MMM) is in a Minor wave 4 correction that should have it's ((c)) wave unfold lower towards the 23% Fibonacci retracement level in the upcoming days.  I got short the stock through a put vertical earlier this week but forgot to post the trade here.  The stock has not done much since my trade anyway as my position is actually down just a little from when I entered:

Bought MMM put vertical June 3rd  157.5/170 for $4.02

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

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