Friday, April 13, 2012
As I said in last week's post, stocks appear to have topped. I'm unsure of how major of top this is, but for the short and medium term bears, it provides opportunities. Stocks are correcting a severely overbought situation they've been in for many weeks. The short term is bearish. 1422 should mark the high for the foreseeable future. I'm shorting modestly against that level.
Learn Elliott Wave Principle (EWP)
With stocks slapping me around the past several months, I've focused more on the euro since it has been more predictable, and has consistently been profitable for me. I propose two wave counts today, both are short term bearish. Above is my original count I was tracking for the past week or so which is still very much possible. But today's sharp decline makes me think that it's not just a wave ((v)), but possibly a 3rd wave instead.
Here's what I mean. By changing the degrees of trend to the Minor level, it's quite possible today's decline is the kickoff to Minor wave 3. Now there's a lot of trading left in the day, so let's see how the euro closes before we make a decision on which count to put as top choice. The way I see it, if the euro closes near its lows for the day, this count directly above is my top choice. But if the euro makes a solid comeback and closes significantly higher than the lows on the day, then I'm still putting the count with wave ((v)) underway as my top choice. Minor wave 3 should be strong and relentless, so anything short of that type of action here will put this count in 2nd place. Either way, the short term for the euro looks bearish.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.