Starting from the marked Primary wave ((2)) high above, there was a nice clean impulsive decline into Minor wave 1. From there, we have a choppy overlapping low volume rally into what could be the Minor wave 2 top. This is textbook EWP analysis and it couldn't be clearer what will happen next, i.e. Minor wave 3 down in an aggressive sharp move. But to be honest, I hate textbook market moves because that means it's easy and obvious. And easy and obvious usually mean the market will do the opposite. With that said, I trade on the evidence. I trade on what the market tells me to do. And I employ discipline like an Army drill sergeant to trade my system and not try to outsmart myself with whims and "feelings" on the market. Keep it simple, the wave count and risk/reward favors the bears right now so I'm trading the probabilities. Right now evidence is strong that Minor wave 2 topped already, or will top with one sharp and short new high. So that means I should be looking to short. By having a stop just above 1374.81, the risk/reward is desirable for the bears.
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The euro continues to fall. There is no reason to think it will stop any time soon. The swing highs remain intact and I continue to short against the most recent swing high. Right now my stop is just above 1.2334 and I will trail it down with the euro. Until the series of lower highs is broken, this trade will continue being easy and profitable, which is something very rare we get from any market. The next support level is 1.1876, which will either be immediately taken out, or will be taken out after a few attempts. The bottom line, the euro is very bearish for the foreseeable future and has almost 400 pips to fall before any meaningful support gets in its way.
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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.