Friday, December 26, 2008

Market Flat Until After Holidays; Dec. 26, 2008

The market has been fairly flat and volume has been absurdly low. I see that with the new year coming around the corner big moves should occur in the market soon. I'm positioned to benefit from that move being to the downside, with tight stops on most of the positions. Nothing has really changed in my analysis over the past week or so. The market should rally into the 950 S&P area, but its failure to do so in a timely manner and weakening momentum indicators tell me that may not happen. So I'm positioned short this market with the idea that's it's quite possible for a strong rally to 950. So I have plenty of capital on the sidelines to short such a rally.

I'll post something new when I see something worth mentioning.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Market Uncertainty Calls for Positions with the Larger Trend....DOWN; Dec. 23, 2008

The market's failure to rally into my target area of 950 for quite some time and numerous bearish indicators that show a big decline can occur any time has caused me to abandon my long positions. With very light volume during the holiday weeks here it only adds to the uncertainty and risk. The larger trend is down, that I'm quite certain of so I have modest short positions and will add to them if the market rallies.

As for the short term movement day to day, I have no idea. I'm short and holding short for the next declining phase.

Monday, December 22, 2008

I have no long positions anymore; Dec. 22, 2008

No time to go in great detail as I'm reconfiguring my strategy. The market has failed to rally as proposed for quite some time now. Today is a light volume day but the market suggests a rally but it keeps drifting lower. I don't like what the market is doing so I exited my long positions and am only modestly short various sector ETFs and the Nasdaq 100. I am still allowing for a sharp rally into the 950 area so my short positions are fairly small in preparation to reshort on rallies. A strong S&P break of 850 should eliminate most/all bullish possibilities in the short term.

To sum up, I'm now only short with modest positions on in preparation for a strong rally where I'll just add to my shorts. A strong break of 850 in the S&P should result in an accelerated decline and will cause me to pile on more short positions.