S&P Futures

The persistence of this rally caught me off guard a bit but fits well as a wave (ii) counter trend move. Several of my intraday indicators show the market overbought here. I'm not sure we'll get a breakdown this morning, but ideally the rally should stall here and perhaps break down 30 minutes prior to the close. The jobs report should then trigger wave (iii) down tomorrow morning. This count remains valid as long as 1992.75 is not broken. Although even if it is, we could still work the 3 wave rally off the wave 1 low as a wave 2 correction. More after the jobs report Friday...


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures

This wave count using closing points on the 1hr time frame is tracking well.  Friday's fractured market, as I pointed out, was a good indication that a top was in place as Monday and Tuesday this week has shown significant weakness.  And after two days of heavy selling, the bulls managed only a modest float rally higher.  Not good for the bulls.  Friday is the big jobs report in the morning, then on to the 3 day Labor Day weekend, so I expect the market to probably float around sideways to slightly up Thursday, then huge moves Friday morning after the jobs report, then volume and volatility should taper off significantly after a few hours of trading as traders take off to enjoy the long weekend.

The wave count suggests a major declining phase is underway and that I should favor the downside for my trades in stocks and their derivatives.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures Setting up for Major Decline

The triangle count I posted earlier got crushed almost immediately after I posted it, lol.  But that does not change the bearish count overall.  This count makes sense from a practical EWP perspective, but does not from a purist fundamental EWP perspective.  The reason is that 2nd waves are usually sharp and deep rallies while 4th waves are usually flat and shallow affairs. This count above is opposite of that as wave (ii) is flat and shallow and wave (iv) is sharp and deep.  Although the count does not violated any EWP rules, it does contradict EWP guidelines for wave characteristics. But if I tweak the bars a little, we get a cleaner count in my view...

When using closing lines instead of intra-bars we get a much more ideal wave count.  Note that waves ((ii)) and ((iv)) are much more proportionate, and that the sharp rally late last week aligns nicely with 2nd wave characteristics (wave 2).  An alternate view of this count would be to replace wave 1 with A, and wave 2 with B.  Either way, wave 3 or C down will be impulsive, strong and probably quite deep.

The market action Friday was pretty bad for the bulls.  The market was very fractured with varying markets and sectors up with others down most of the day.  This type of "fractured" behavior often occurs at tops.  That type of behavior doesn't always result in in tops, but most tops do exhibit this type of behavior.  If the bulls don't come out strong on Monday and hold the gains throughout the day, I expect this market to resume its decline in wave 3 or C quite soon.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures

The bears were in full control the last 3 trading days and shaved a huge chunk of capital from the markets. The bears have run out and short covering and "discount" buyers are in control. But make no mistake, the selling craze is not over.  There is at least one 5th wave to male new lows before we can even consider if the selloff is over or not. I'm waiting for the bears to regroup and getting ready to go short again since the larger trend is still down.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures

Well that bullish triangle I proposed got scrapped quick.  The markets are in real trouble. We fell hard and closed in the lows Thursday and Friday, then today the S&Ps were down over 100 points in pre-market. We have been in a topping pattern for several months and so the rubber band has gotten real stretched and it now snapping back. Despite the market continuing lower in the foreseeable future, remember that the largest rallies have occurred in bear markets. So the bears need to be vigilant, use proper money management, and have strict discipline not to let greed over run your trading plan as those rallies will be fierce.

My target for S&P futures is the 1750-1770 area.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&Ps Nearing End of Triangle

The S&Ps should be undergoing a wave E of a 4th wave triangle as it appears my ABC correction forecast fell flat.  Wave E's are usually caused by a news event so be in the lookout for big news announcements tomorrow and Thursday. Then, I'll be looking to get long for a sharp strong and fast thrust higher to break out of this triangle.

The consolidation in the S&Ps has been quite extended so I expect a large extended move higher to the 2300-2400 level before topping and completely reversing.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures 1hr

The strong rally today threw a wrench in my wave count but if it continues lower almost immediately from current levels then it will remain on track. Short term, the market is overbought so weakness from current levels would not be a surprise.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

EURUSD Daily

The euro continues to grind lower and I expect a strong move lower sometime this week.  As long as the series of lower highs and lower lows continues, the short side is favored for trades.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures 1hr

The S&P is in a C wave which is impulsive so it should leave a clear 5 waves down.  Look for lower levels n the days ahead.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

USDJPY 1hr

The USDJPY is finally breaking out of consolidation and moving higher it what could be the start of a bullish 3rd wave.  Initial target is the 127 area.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

EURUSD Daily

The Euro is working its way lower and remaining under the moving averages with a steady series of lower lows and lower highs. the trend is firmly down with 1.05 as the initial target.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S$P Futures 1hr

This morning's pop looks like a wave ii and now the bears can regain control, putting the market under heavy pressure the rest of the week.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures 1hr

S&Ps working lower, albeit slowly.  If the wave count above is correct, then prices should move sharply lower tomorrow, and possibly the rest of the week.  A push higher above 2110 means that the bulls have probably regained control and will push prices higher for a while.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

The wave count is playing out as expected. If correct, this wave count suggests a strong short term downtrend that should last a week or two.  The first target is 2056.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures Detailed Count

This is just another way to count the wave ((ii)) correction.  Although, the result is still the same as the chart I just posted a few minutes ago.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.