Elliott Wave Forex Signals - GBPNZD Update

I'm closed half my position at 2.0322 at a 103 pip profit and moved my stop loss to break even on the rest of the trade.  Although I think this pair can get to 2.0700, it is not in my trading plan to wait for that to get hit. Instead I am looking to close the remainder of my position at 2.0375.

HERE IS THE ORIGINAL TRADE SETUP:

The GBPNZD has been destroyed the past few weeks and a short term correction is due.  As you can see from my wave count, the pair has completed two 5-wave impulsive declines within an Intermediate wave (3) down.  A sharp wave ((ii)) is in order from current levels which is supported by the bunching up of price action between 2.0000 and 2.0250, and also since my custom indicator triggered a long signal that was just recently confirmed on the recent price action higher.  This pair really moves wildly so I'm taking it slow and safe with just 1/3 position:

Long at 2.0219, profit target now of  2.0500 and stop at 1.9950.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Short OKE and JCI

ONEOK Inc. (OKE) has been on a monster bull run but price action, the wave count, and my custom indicators are telling me that a pullback in on the horizon.  Since the ((iv)) bottom, wave ((v)) of 5 has push price significantly higher, but in a much more choppy manner.  In addition, price appears to be rolling over in conjunction with a confirmed sell signal on my custom indicators.  I think a decline to around the $40 is in the cards in the next few weeks.  Here is the trade.

Buy to open OKE  July 15  40/45 put spread for $1.43

Johnson Controls Inc. (JCI) has also been on a monster bull run.  But price action, momentum, the wave count, and my custom indicators, all suggest at least a short term top and pull back is imminent.  It appears the move will be a Minor wave 2 which means it should be a sharp and deep affair.  I'm targeting the 61% Fibonacci retracement level around $62 for now.  Here's the trade:

Buy to open JCI  July 15  41/45 put spread for $1.25

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures Analysis

The S&P's sharp reversal is indicative of a 2nd wave rally.  So I adjusted the wave count a bit to account for this action today.  Wave (ii) does not appear complete, and today's move was probably just wave a, and most likely tomorrow we will see a choppy or flat downward move for wave b.  To support the fact that more rallying is in the cards, my custom indicators signaled a VIX sell signal starting yesterday on the 130min chart (1/3 of the US cash session).  That bearish signal was confirmed at the end of trading today with a price close beneath my signal line.  This signals a bullish move for stocks overall for the next few days.  I'm projecting the wave (ii) rally to end around the 2080-2090 area.

The only issue I see here is that VIX buy signals, and sharp rallies like we saw today, often also accompany strong 3rd wave moves.  Since the market is lining up for wave ((c)) down, which is also considered a 3rd wave, then it is possible the market action I noted previously is extraordinarily bearish.  This is less likely to occur though, so it is not my primary analysis and projection.  I am sticking with the hard facts, and those are that the structure of price action supports my wave count, and that a VIX S&P buy signal has been confirmed.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Closed MIDD at 72% Profit

Middleby (MIDD) dropped over 5% today putting me in a 72% profit in less than a day so I closed the position and skipped away into the horizon.  Here is the trade summary.

Closed Jul 15 115/125 put vertical at $5.10 (bought at $2.96) for a 72% profit.  

The original trade setup was in yesterday's post just below this post.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - WentShort NOC and MIDD

I went short Northrup Grumman Corp (NOC) at the close today.  This stock has been on fire the past few months and price action suggests exhaustion.  After the wave wave (3) high, price limped up to test that high in wave B, and has started to falter ever since.  In addition, my custom indicators have confirmed a sell signal on the stock, so this seems like a great opportunity to put on a short trade.  Here's the trade:

Buy to open July 15  210/220 put vertical at $3.68

I also went short Middleby Corp. (MIDD) at the close today as well.  This stock has also been in fire the last few months, although the structure of this really could be interpreted as a 3 wave correction.  If so, this stock is in some serious trouble moving forward.  But this is a much longer term timeframe than what I trade, although if true it would still trade in my direction - down.  I believe it's more likely and more conducive to sound analysis and trading to count it as a bullish move ending with Minor wave 1.  Minor wave 2 down is now unfolding, and it should be a sharp and deep affair.  I'm projecting it will get to the $114-$116 area within the next few weeks.  Here's the trade:

Buy to open July 15  115/125 put vertical at $2.96

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Going Long GBPNZD

The GBPNZD has been destroyed the past few weeks and a short term correction is due.  As you can see from my wave count, the pair has completed two 5-wave impulsive declines within an Intermediate wave (3) down.  A sharp wave ((ii)) is in order from current levels which is supported by the bunching up of price action between 2.0000 and 2.0250, and also since my custom indicator triggered a long signal that was just recently confirmed on the recent price action higher.  This pair really moves wildly so I'm taking it slow and safe with just 1/3 position:

Long at 2.0219, profit target now of  2.0500 and stop at 1.9950.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures Analysis

The market has been under continued selling pressure and appears to be reaching a short term bottom, if not already established at today's low.  I base this on a few reasons: 1) the S&P made a short new low while the Russell 2000 futures did not, 2) the current decline looks impulse has completed a 5 wave down move within a larger degree ((c)) wave down; and, 3 my custom indicators confirmed a buy signal on the VIX at the close today on the hourly chart.

First, attached is a wave count which counts a 5 wave decline complete at today's low at the Subminuette level.  This completes Minuette wave (i) of Minute wave ((c)) of Minor wave 2.  That may sound confusing, but the chart tells it all to where it makes more sense.  With 5 waves down complete, I want to look to my custom indicators to see if I have any intraday oversold indications, or even better, if a long signal has been confirmed, so that I can be more certain the current decline is due for a correction right now.  Looking at the hourly chart of the VIX attached you can see that a sell signal initiated last Friday and continued on almost all throughout the trading day today. But the sell signal is only confirmed when it closes beneath the signal magenta colored line, which happened right at the close today.  A sell signal in VIX is a buy signal in the S&P, so I'm expecting a sharp shot higher for a good 20+ points for Minuette wave (ii) soon, that should last for at least 2-3 days.

So those are two solid pieces of evidence that tells me to be cautious on the bearish side right now as it's likely a sharp rally is on the horizon.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures Updated Chart

The S&P's finally snapped and are moving towards my target just below 2000.  This is a wave ((c)) so it's impulsive and should unfold in a clean 5 waves.  So plan accordingly.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures

The market has been meandering around sideways to up for the past few weeks which are indicative of a tiring trend.  It has carried on much further than I anticipated, so I had to rework my wave count.  The summer apathy has hit Wall Street in full force as the market seems to move without conviction, although it makes progress higher and higher.  That is not good for the bears, and the bulls can easily float this market higher and higher as it has done so many times in the past under these conditions.  In reworking the wave count, EWP's guideline for the "right look" still has a Minor wave 1 rally complete, and the past several weeks have been part of an ABC "flat correction".  The major issue with this outlook is that wave ((b)) looks like a 5 wave rally more than a 3 wave move, which gives me some hesitation here.  On the flipside, calling that same wave an impulsive wave ((i)) also has it's problems since it would be part of a Minor wave 3, which means it should be a sharp and strong melt-up kind of move, and I'm just not seeing that.  For now, I'm still counting this as a flat correction with wave ((b)) ending soon.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Closed HRB at 59% Profit

I did not get to post a chart of this trade signal on HRB (H&R Block, Inc.) at the time I posted it on the blog since I was on travel during that time. But here is the chart I had that initiated the trade. A temporary bottom appeared to be in place for the tax prep service as it headed into earnings. I was able to capitalize on this with a call spread for a nice 59% profit. I still think it will float higher to close a gap and get to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level until its earnings call next week. But I'm not confident in the stock market as a whole holding up during that time and a decline in the market will put lressure on this stock.  So I took profits.  Here is the trade summary:

Closed HRB June 17. 20/23 call vertical at $1.59 for 59% profit. See original trade signal here.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave S&P Futures

He market hasn't done much to prompt any trades so I have been quietly and patiently waiting for the imminent decline I called for last week. Bearish signals are still in place and remain unresolved so I'm looking for lower levels in the upcoming weeks. I'm looking for an initial decline to a confluence of support at 2033-2050 before any meaningful and sustained bullish action should ensue.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&Ps in Sideways Chop

I wanted to give a quick update based on my post yesterday since I called for a sharp decline soon. The sideways chop in price action and the overbought/oversold indicator showing even on both sides tells me we are probably in a 4th wave. If so, a sharp and quick move higher should end the rally from the past few days to complete the 5th wave higher, and then lead to a sharp reversal of 30 or more S&P points.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures Update

PRIMARY COUNT

The S&Ps have been a mess to trade and count outside of day trading small time frame intraday charts.  My primary count now has a Minor 1 completed, with the choppy overlapping decline the past few weeks as an (a)(b)(c) leg of wave ((w)) within a combination correction.  The reason I feel this correction will unfold as a combination is that it is very sideways and choppy, which is not consistent with a completed 2nd wave (for Minor wave 2).  2nd waves tend to be sharp, and deep, not sideways and choppy.  Plus, wave ((x)) higher has unfolded in 3 waves which completed at today's close.  As you'll see later in this post, my proprietary indicators suggest a sharp move lower is coming very soon, so this outlook also fits nicely in this count as the market needs to decline very soon in wave ((y)) of 2.

ALTERNATE COUNT

The alternate count is certainly viable, although more unlikely in my view.  This count suggests a Minor wave 3 up is just getting started yet momentum indicators are already at, or near, overbought levels.  Also add the characteristics of this decline and it is not indicative of a second wave as I previously mentioned.  Regardless, it's still a viable count and therefore it should at least be considered.

CUSTOM INDICATORS

I haven't been posting much the past few weeks because I was on travel, and I have been working on using my custom indicators to analyze the S&P 500 index.  I have been able to create these two indicators which tell me:

1) how many stocks have overbought/sold and are pending reversals (histogram)
2) how many stocks have confirmed reversals (light blue line)

These indicators are one of the most forward looking indicators you will find, and works extremely well on daily stock charts, and also pretty good on forex spot.

So, in the chart you can see a major extreme occurred yesterday as 165 stocks hit bearish signals (red line) and only 5 stocks hit bullish signals.  The histogram shows the difference between the two with a 160 stock bearish advantage out of 500 stocks in the index.  This is significant for a 5min chart, and one of the highest I have ever seen.

Stocks can remain overbought and oversold for extended periods of time so what's important is to see how many stocks have reversal confirmed.  For this, I look at the light blue line.  We see that yesterday the extreme came with a difference of bullish to bearish stocks at 118 stocks confirming bearish signals.  At this time, I was looking to get short, and did get short where I was eventually stopped out.  At today's open, the market has not resolved its overbought indications, so the rubber band is stretched.  This morning, the market moved higher at the open, and pushing even more stocks into overbought territory, with a steady flow of stocks confirming bearish moves throughout the day, as the market just traversed sideways.  The fact that there are so many bearish stocks confirming moves lower for two days and the S&P has not declined to alleviate that pressure tells me that the stock market is about to selloff hard and soon.

The stock market is overbought short term, and I expect a large selloff to occur early tomorrow or Friday at the latest.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Closed IR, EXP and ITW

Quick trade update as this morning's decline pushed some positions down to my target levels:

Closed IR at $3.07, opened for $2.03 for 51% profit

Closed EXP at $3.84, opened for $3.47 for 11% profit

Closed ITW at $2.55, opened for $1.91 for 34% profit


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Closed RPM, LQD, MMM, MIK and DVY

I have been swamped the past two weeks and haven't been able to put up any posts, and won't be able to put any detailed posts until next week.  But I did want to update my positions quickly for the record as a few positions have hit my targets.  I also opened 3 new positions today as well:

CLOSED POSITIONS

Closed RPM at $1.75, opened for $1.50 = +17%

Closed LQD at $1.27, opened for $0.94 = +35%

Closed MMM at $3.88, opened for $4.02 = -3%

Closed MIK at $2.45, opened for $2.00 = +23%

Closed DVY at $1.52, opened for $1.15 = +32%

OPENED POSITIONS

Bought to open AFL (Aflac, Inc.) June 17. 65/70 put vertical at $1.49

Bought to open IR (Ingersoll Rand Plc) June 17. 62.5/67.5 put vertical at $2.03

Bought to open HRB (H&R Block, Inc.) June 17. 20/23 call vertical at $1.00


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.