Tuesday, August 12, 2008

August 12, 2008; Waiting...

Thanks Diver for waking me up today, lol. With Friday's monster rally that broke any immediate bearish secenario from possibly unfolding, it's taken a bit of the wind out of me. And I see further rallying ahead and I'm holding short for the big wave 3 of (3) down so I'm not following every little short term movement in the market right now. I don't want to get emotional about all the pain I'm going through now because it might lead to a bad decision. I've decided to just sit back and wait for wave 2 to end, and give way to wave 3 of (3) down. Just waiting.

The weakness in the market today is not impressive all, neither from an EWP perspective or a breadth perspective. I don't see any clear 5 wave declines, and breadth is mildly weak. Not at all what I'd expect if wave 3 of (3) down was underway. The market has rallied a lot the past week or so, and quick, so I expect at least some pull back here. But at least one more new high seems likely as of now.

One positive note from a crowd psychology standpoint: I have noticed the bulls are back out talking about a market bottom and buying up high beta (higher risk) stocks like small caps and technology so they don't miss out on the next big bull run. I'd like to see more and more of this talk on financial TV because once the bulls start coming back talking about a bottom and minimizing the bears' point of view, that's when the market will collapse. Now that those bulls are starting to make some noise, it appears we're approaching that time. I do strongly feel that wave 3 of (3) will begin by the end of August.

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