Friday, August 22, 2008

August 22, 2008; Today's Rally Waning

Short term momentum indicators are showing bearish divergence and the NYSE has lagged the blue chips' gains significantly all day. Plus, over the past 30 minutes, breadth has also deteriorated drastically. This is all very bearish in the short term for the overall market. A pull back in the Dow to at least 11,550 should occur within the next hour or so. A break of 11,476 would be bearish and might imply that the downtrend will resume, and negate the larger bullish potential of today's rally.

Also, the Nasdaqs' rallies held at their prior 4th waves and are now reversing. Again, this is very encouraging to the larger bearish case because only corrections tend to stall around those levels, and both indices traced out 5 wave declines prior to their rallies.

Let's see if this coming decline can pick up some speed and momentum.


Anonymous said...


Don't give up the big picture. We have been talking about this time frame for a long while. You may have seen the news related high already. If not maybe one more non-sense headline next week. Fannie & Freddie related. Whatever. Point is the EW count is clear. 3 of (3) is coming.

Get in the life boat the ship is sinking. Remember the Titanic? Well right now the ship is holed, the bow is under water, the hull is breaking in half, the stern is lifting up. The next thing that happens to a sinking ship is it goes straight under! Diver

Todd S said...

Yes I won't give up the big picture. But I can't just sit and hold my positions in full force either. Bear market rallies can be ferocious so caution and protection points are necessary, at least in my view.

Anonymous said...

Dude this is what bear market rallies do. They scare people out right before the drop. DUH. You know better AT. Stay cool. I know you were calling for a 300 point up day first thing this morning. We may very well get it by 4 pm. BUT, it may not happen either. Just let's let the market work and not let the intra day gyrations throw us. You bud, Diver :)

Todd S said...

You're the man, Diver! You know I love ya! I'm not throwing in the towel by any means. As I said in a previous post, I'm following the Nasdaqs, and until they break down, I'm maintaining my positions. The blue chips fell just short of tracing out what seemed to be perfect 5 wave declines now that the Dow broke 11,590, and now it's testing the prior trendline. I'm not throwing in the towel bud, but these are two significant developments if they hold. That's all. We're good bud, we're good. I'm solid! LOL.

Watch the Nasdaq! It's offering the clearest picture of wave counts and structure, and the past year it's led the market both up and down.


Anonymous said...

I don't trade or follow the NQ so I'm relying on you in that department. Keep up the good work.

We are going to get the drop. It may be just around the corner. The September-October time frame is the market "killa". Next week is the last week for any highs in the cycle work I have. Yes, there may be some more pain yet. But, it will short lived.

There is nothing out there but dead bodies that they are covering up. They are doing everything in their power to make the public believe that we are out of the woods. Nonsense. All our banks, mortgage companies, and brokerage houses are either bankrupt or being taken over by some foreign investors or being bailed out by printing more money. This veil will be pierced soon. When the next shoe drops there won't be any saving the market.

I am not preaching to you. I am talking to myself as well. It is very hard to sit here day in day out and believe in what you are doing. It is very easy to be swayed. It is important to have trustful people you can bounce things off of to stay on course. :)

Todd S said...

Oh you're not preaching at all, I like your input, especially on cycles because I don't follow them. I know the 3 of (3) is coming, but the timing is becoming quite the task. I'm going to rely on the cycles that you've been talking about because my guidelines for time have already been well satisfied.

However a rally to September/October is far more punishment than I will let my account withstand. But the Nasdaqs are still well in play for the 3 of (3) and as long as the S&P and Dow both don't close above the trendline, then I'll remain in full position. A close above the trendline by both indices will probably cause me to trim back and wait for another signal later on, perhaps a time signal from you on cycles. That's just me. I'm not giving up on it in the big picture, but short term, the trendline is key for me mainting full positions.

Thanks Diver!