Monday, March 30, 2009

S&P Falls as Forecasted, More to Go; March 30, 2009

The S&P fell hard today and made a nice profit along with the XLF and gold trades. Again, with such a hard fall today I took profits to protect my capital. Momentum is headed sharply and strongly lower (see above 4hr S&P futures chart) and the internals of the market were extremely bearish as there were very little buyers at all in the market according to NYSE breadth. We might get a mild pop rally tomorrow but the next move of importance should be to the downside and I see support at the prior 4th wave and 38% fibo retracement level at 761, and the next level of support at the 743 level. Many on TV seem to site the 740 level as very important and the place to form a bottom and start buying. Because of this, I'm contrarian to this mainstream view of course and don't think that will mark the bottom. So most likely we'll see this decline end around the 760 area. But that view can change as this decline unfolds.

I'm still short the S&P through a bear put spread on the SPY.


jozef said...

Are you sure with top of B. This B is higher as wafe 5 and, it´s should by lower or not?

Or you think,it´s triangle expanding?

Todd S said...

In a "flat correction", wave B exceeds the prior 5th wave extreme.