Thursday, April 23, 2009

$950 Gold Should Hold, I Remain Bearish; April 23, 2009

Gold rallied hard today before weakening modestly at the close. I am losing confidence in this short term wave count because wave 4 is getting much too large and elongated in relation to wave 2 which challenges EWP's guidline for the "right look". Regardless of the short term wave count, gold remains bearish as long as it doesn't make a new significant high, and that high I determine to be the $950 area. I am straight up short the gold ETF (GLD) and have put option butterfly on the same ETF to profit if gold continues to go up slightly or sideways for the next few weeks.


Anonymous said...

if the counting is correct ? then short on gold is the proper action. stop is at the low of w:1 of w:3 at 917.10

Todd S said...

Yes, I agree, but I now have very low confidence in this current wave count because wave 4 is much too extended and long compared to wave 2, so it doesn't have EWP's "right look". I still feel the metal structure is weak and is bearish as long as it doesn't make a new high above $950 which would most likely signal a new short term uptrend is forming.