Thursday, June 11, 2009

Still Waiting for Trendline Break, Evidence Building of Significant Top; June 11, 2009

The market did a sharp rally today on the Treasury auction news and then reversed at the close. In my 15min cash S&P chart posted above you can see that the rally starting yesterday and ending today created a 5 wave move. This can often mean an 'ending move', such as a thrust from a triangle, for the entire rally over the past few months. I still await the ascending trendline on the daily S&P futures chart (posted above also) to be broken to the downside and closed beneath it. Until then I cannot be certain a top is in. Right now, things are looking good though. A break of the beginning of the 5 wave advance at 928 in the cash S&P would be the first significant signal that a top was in.

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