Saturday, August 8, 2009

Everything Still the Same, Wave 3 is Approaching Soon; August 8, 2009

Friday's big rally changes nothing to what I've said earlier. In fact, because the market has not pulled back to relieve the overbought condition for quite some time, it makes it more likely that wave 3 will start sometime by mid-September instead of it starting in the Nov-Dec timeframe as previously expected.

I remain half short with options dated well out in advance and will add to those positions as the S&P approaches the 1100 level. I currently own puts on the following:

S&P 500 (SPY)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ)
Silver (SLV)
Financials (XLF)
Russell 2000 (IWM)

2 comments:

Michael K. said...

Hey Todd,

I was checking the $INDU during the great depression at phophet.net and realize on 11/13/1929, the $INDU was at 195 and it rally to 298 on 4/18/1930. Thats almost a 53% gain.

Also, the market top on
Oct 11,2007
Today is Aug, 7, 2009, the s&p made a high at 1018, that is nearly 53% gain from the march low at around 666.

Plus, from Oct 11, 2007 through
Aug 7,2009, it has been 666 days, which is the devil number. OMG

What a coincidence. Also, what you think about ERY? I brought it at $17.58 near the open on Friday and put a stoploss at $17.50.

Todd S said...

Good analysis on the Dow and S&P. We'll see how it plays out. I don't know much about the ERY but looking at a chart it seems the trade may have served you well.

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