Tuesday, September 29, 2009

ALTERNATE COUNT is Bullish; September 29, 2009

The failure of the market to selloff as expected so far has caused some problems in the short term bearish case. With the consumer confidence number being so horrendous the market had every reason to sell off sharply but did not. It is now rallying strongly and internals are moderately positive. But as long as 1078 in the S&P cash not exceeded then I'm still aggressively short term bearish.

Above is an ALTERNATE COUNT which shows the five wave rally the start of the next leg in the bigger bear market rally. It shows a clear 5 waves up, and we just completed a 3 wave A-B-C correction. If correct, a wave 3 rally is underway which should take the market to new highs on the year and probably eventually target the 1100-1110 area in the S&P cash before meeting resistance.

Even if this ALTERNATE COUNT comes true, it does not eliminate the overall bearish call for a crash. It will just, once again, postpone it a little longer.

Right now we wait though, and I'm watching 1078 to remain bearish.

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