This Elliott Wave blog is dedicated to sharing Fibonacci ratios and other technical analysis for forex signals, index futures signals, options signals, and stock signals. Elliott Wave Principle puts forth that people move in predictive patterns, called waves. Identify the wave counts, and you can predict the market.
Friday, October 16, 2009
GBP/USD Mixed Signals Now, I'm Standing Aside
After the GBP/USD thrusted from a small triangle and reversed right into the apex of the triangle for a textbook EWP move, I am now flat the pair.
The key now is to look at the GBP/USD bigger picture to know what it's going to do next. Is the 5 wave rally part of A wave? Is it a C wave of a flat correction? Is it the start of a larger 1-3-5 rally?
Attached is an 8hr GBP/USD chart. It shows that it's at levels that can end the entire rally and lead to the next leg down, i.e. the RSI has reached a level and reversed that has previously led to tops and reversals (see blue circles on RSI) and the pair is finding resistance right at the 61% fibo level (see blue circle on price candles). However, the entire rally was in 5 waves, which tells us that unless it's a C wave, then the trend is now up. I cannot count it as a C wave, so I have to assume it's part of a larger correction, probably an A wave, of an A-B-C rally. So I'm planning on a B wave to slowly and choppily grind lower before another power C wave occurs which should cap the entire rally move as long as it stays beneath 1.6744.
I rarely trade B waves as they're so difficult to trade, and there's conflicting signals is this pair, so I'm currently flat until structure unfolds some more.
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