Monday, November 2, 2009

Just a Quick Note on this Morning

I just wanted to write a quick note on this morning's action and will post a more in depth conclusive analysis of the day later:

Here are the bullet points of this morning:

- The market rallied sharply this morning as I thought possible, however there is somewhat light volume so far and NYSE internals are strong but nothing jaw dropping.

- The Russell 2000 made a new low this morning which confirms the lows in the other major indices.

- The higher risk Russell and Nasdaqs are not rallying as strong as the S&P and Dow, showing that risk appettites are still tame.

- As for the dollar, it pulled back quite a bit in either a wave 2 or wave C of a flat correction (see above two counts, both very bullish in once a bottom forms). Either way, it should wrap up in a day or so and rally in a ferocious wave 3. And with the Fed meeting this week, it sets up nicely for a big dollar rally.

- The S&P is trading close to the daily ascending trendline it closed beneath Friday so this is an interesting level. The trendline is at about the 1058 level so that may be the ceiling we're looking for-for the next wave down. We'll see.

These are just some thoughts to consider watching for the day, but keep in mind there is nothing conclusive to trade on other than the fact that a major decline is probably unfolding right now and 1101 in the S&P cash should not be exceeded for a very long time. The larger trend is firmly and strongly down, and there are a few bearish wave counts possibilities and some lead to heavy selling any minute so I am in not position to get in and out........I think the key here is to be patient and watch the S&P cash 1101 level. PATIENCE


MK said...

Todd I think we are in wave 5 fot S&P as I see it? I think around 1020 as bottom of the channel for the move down so far.

Todd S said...

Hi MK, do you have a chart with the wave count? I see several possibilities myself, but today's new lows and 5 wave dollar rally put the more bearish counts for the stock market up front, for now.