Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Snoozefest in the Market Today
Just a brief holiday week update. Nothing spectacular in today's market snoozefest. I don't want to read too much into any signals or indicators right now with such light volume, but the one thing of interest includes this week's and prior week's data. Volume has fallen off a cliff. Look at the daily S&P cash chart on the past rally phase since early November. That huge rally was done on declining volume, falling significantly short of the 13 day moving average through most of the rally. Combine this with the Dow making a new 13 month high yesterday while virtually no other index or sector followed suit, you have a fractured and weak market. That doesn't mean the market has topped and will roll over immdiately. But with this kind of behavior after the market has rallied 50%+ since March this year, it's certainly not a time to start getting long, in my opinion.
With light volumes over the holiday week I can't say much of anything with a strong level of certainty, but I do still hold the short term bearish view from last week as long as the S&P cash trades under 1114.
I don't want to get all preachy but I do want to share something that's important at this juncture in the market and the year that I've learned while trading the markets. As the holidays approach it's good to always keep the markets in perspective and realize that its behavior and our portfolios pale in comparison to the importance of good family, friends and health. Enjoy as much as you can with them as the holidays approach, and remember that the market is just a game, and that true happiness will ALWAYS result from relationships we build with our family and friends, not the market. Tomorrow is a heavy news day so we may get something worth reporting. If not, I probably won't be back until the weekend or Monday.
Happy Turkey Day!!