Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Decline Weakening Short Term and at the Bottom of the Range; Decision Time for the Market
Precious metals continue to sell off hard, but the US dollar is having trouble maintaining its upward momentum and the stock market is looking very "bottomish" as its past two declines have been very choppy and hard faught as seen on the S&P 5min chart attached. This "bottomish" behavior is exemplified by the fact that the S&P is right at the bottom portion of the range its been trading in the past few weeks. So the door is open for a sharp rally from current levels, however it's not required.
So it's decision time for the market. A solid break and close beneath that range, around 1085, should lead to acceleration of the downtrend and possibly align the stock market with precious metals, the Russell 2000 and the XLF by forming a major top. OR, it will bounce off the support and rally within the range further torturing the bears.
I remain neutral the stock market in the short term until the range is broken significantly.