Friday, March 5, 2010
Half AUD/JPY Position Stopped Out; I'm ReShorting
I was stopped out of half my AUD/JPY position this morning at 80.90 which resulted in a 68 pip loss. The other half of my position is still in play with a stop at 82.90. Although the strength of the rally looks solid, and follow through to stop me out on the other half of my position is a decent possibility right now, the wave count suggests otherwise. This latest rally may just be a C wave, and the strength and slope of the ascent would support this. Plus, with it trading around 81.90, it's fairly close to my stop at 82.90, so I like this risk/reward for a possible reversal here. I'm risking about 100 pips to possibly make well over 300 if the trade works out to full potential. I like those odds so I'm re-entering the other half of my position at a much better price then where I exited.
So I'm again fully short the AUD/JPY with a stop at 82.90. I may be throwing good money after bad, but the wave structure and risk/reward make it a desirable risk.
In regards to the stock market, it may be thrusting from the triangle I laid out yesterday, but we need to see a reversal start by the end of the day. Volume picked up at the open but has since declined later in the session. I hold firm on what I said yesterday:
"If the S&P cash index makes a strong push higher on high volume and strong internals, and momentum on the intraday charts turns up and it appears clear it will close well above 1125, I will close all my short term short positions."
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.