Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Market Running Out of Room to Rally
Well I thought we had a small completed 5 wave rally at yesterday's close, suggesting we'd have an ABC zig-zag correction higher where waves A and C would be composed of 5 waves advances. So yesterday I thought that 5 wave advance was wave A. That was clearly not the case as the market just charged higher all day today with strong internals and volume. The bears were non-existent. So it was a good day for the bulls. But one strong day doesn't mean the bull run is on now for the next several weeks as tomorrow can easily reverse all the bullish action today. But it needs to do it quick because we're running out of room to the upside here to still consider this count correct. Yesterday I said the Dow completed 3 waves down, suggesting its drop was just a correction and that a new high might be in the cards. The Dow is almost there. But the other indices still sport the 5 wave drops so I'm not sure a new Dow high will be followed by the other indices. What is concerning though is that the rally from yesterday into today looks a lot like a 5 wave advance, and Apple earnings are getting everyone excited again, so it seems likely this market will continue higher early tomorrow morning. But, until the S&P makes a new high on the year, the other bearish evidence remains in place and sets this market up for further losses.
With the action today creating a 5 wave rally, my confidence in the short term bearish case has waned significantly, but it will take a new high on the year in the S&P to ultimately destroy the short term bearish outlook completely.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.