Thursday, April 1, 2010
Thrusting from the Triangle
The market decided to just thrust from the triangle this morning with a very sharp rise into about midday where it reversed nicely, only to be bought up at the close. Quite a see-saw day. The thrust in the morning is very typical of what to expect after a triangle, but is very short in length and time as it stands right now, even though it made a new high. The decline was much weaker and longer than the preceding rise and was bought up at the close, most likely because no one wants to hold short over a long weekend, especially with jobs data coming out tomorrow.
So to keep things in proper proportion and get the "right look", I'm labeling this morning's rally as a wave i within this final thrust upward. The midday decline was wave ii, and we're in wave iii right now. If correct, the market should shoot aggressively higher on Monday and take us to a possible test of 1200. But remember, thrusts are terminal moves that are immediately completely reversed when complete. So thrusts' sharp and fast nature shouldn't scare EW'ers, they should make us happy because we see opportunity.
A break below 1167.15 would mean the thrust ended today, and the market is in a larger correction, or has completely reversed trend in wave  or B. If the market shoots higher Monday above 1181.43, then I'd expect it to continue higher for a day or two and attempt to assault the 1200 level before topping and completely reversing to at least the apex of the triangle around 1171.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.