Thursday, July 8, 2010
Euro Rally Fading Fast, Downward Reversal Imminent
Just a quick note on a good opportunity. I've been easing into a EUR/USD (euro) short position over the past week or so due to the clear 3 wave corrective structure it's formed in what should be a large wave 4. Now you can see an "ending diagonal" like pattern forming now. This is a sign of weakening trend, and that a sharp reversal is coming soon. The only problem is controlling risk since stop losses would be too tight at recent swing highs since this pair can easily just grind slightly higher for a while. The bottom line though is that this pair is about to reverse downward sharply and I want in on it as long as I can manage my risk on the trade appropriately. Also of note, if the EUR/USD is forming a major top and reversal in wave 5 to new lows on the year, it will be tough for the stock market to make any sustained rally. So the key 1131 level in the S&P I mentioned yesterday would seem safe for now if the euro is topping.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.