Sunday, August 22, 2010
The Week Ahead
In the short term, the market is unfolding in clear 5 wave declines. Volume is still light relative to normal non-summer days, but the trend still continues for volume spikes on selloffs and volume falling on rallies. This is bearish. Most down days lately have had NYSE trading around 1 billion shares at least, while rallies lately have been in the high 700 to low 800 million share range, which is extremely light, even for summer trading.
The above count is my primary count. Only a break above 1100.14 would cancel it out and put the bullish alternate below on equal ground with a new bearish count. The bearish count above suggests a small rally, perhaps early Monday morning, followed by a 3rd wave at various degrees that should send the market lower in a virtual straight line.
The evidence remains that the bears have control of the market and I would still be aggressively shorting rallies with stops just above 1100.14 for aggressively short positions, and above 1129.24 for less aggressive positions.
Above is the bullish alternate count. Short term, the market is unfolding in 5 waves, but in the bigger picture we still only have a 3 wave drop from the 1129 high. So until that morphs into a large 5 wave drop, we have to respect this bullish potential. This doesn't mean I'm bullish or will hold back from being aggressively short at this point. It just means that it's something to watch and be aware of as the market unfolds this week. The question this week will be whether the market is moving in a manner that coincides better with my top count above, or more in line with the alternate count below that. A break above 1100.14 would put this bullish alternate count higher up on the probability list.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.