The above count is very bearish, suggest a Minute wave ((3)) is now underway. If correct, the euro should be headed aggressively lower. A break below the Minute wave ((1)) low at 1.3733 would put this count as top choice, and leave a great door open for monster gains for the bears in the months ahead.
The other count is just as likely in my view. It has the euro in a triangle. It's currently in Minute wave ((e)) of Minor 4th wave triangle which when complete, will lead to a sharp thrust to new highs before being quickly and completely reversed. That new high the thrust makes should mark the end of the euro rally for a very long time. Again, the bears should be in firm control from then on. A break below 1.3733 would make a triangle count here very unlikely.
I'm not too concerned with stocks at the moment. I want the elections and the Fed's QE2 announcement Tuesday and Wednesday out of the way before reading into anything to much. The market surged higher this morning but has pulled back since. It seems that the power players in the market don't want prices drifting too far away from current levels since selloffs and rallies keep getting reversed to a near flat market the past week. So waiting for the news to pass seems wise. But the uptrends in the major indices remain intact so I have to expect higher levels until those uptrends are broken. An S&P close below 1172 would be a good start to breaking that uptrend, and a move below 1160 would strongly suggest the trend has changed to down. If anything of interest occurs in trading later today, I'll put up another post. Otherwise, the information here remains unchanged.
DJIA Priced in Gold: What It Means for the Long-Term Trend
Of the many forward-looking market indicators we at EWI employ, one of the most interesting tools (and least discussed in the financial media) is the DJIA priced in gold -- "the real money," as EWI's president Robert Prechter calls it. What implications might the present position of Dow/gold have for the long-term trend of the nominal Dow? In this video, Elliott Wave International's Steven Hochberg shows you several revealing charts that answer this question.
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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
2 comments:
Todd
Todd
I'm completely aware of that,,, however I am not trying to put any rationale into this, other than to say what I see, which is a nice risk/reward set-up on the GBPUSD,,, - below 1.5800 .. or failure to really hold over 1.5950 on a sustained basis - I'm out... Other than that I stay long,,,with possible target 1.6700... - Its when I try and put rationality into these moves, is when I scuff my technical calls..
Agnes, you and I and countless others who look at the actual numbers, have been saying the same thing since Sept 1st, "anyday now, we'll get a selloff".
But Big Brother has stopped that from happening. The market can no longer have normal days of unwinding, they are propped with BILLIONS in POMO and other stimulus by the FED. They single handily warned all traders, do not DARE short the market while Big Brother's checkbook is opne, and the presses are running 24/7.
The inevitable outcome will be the total destruction of the US Dollar.
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