STOCKS
The internals today were slanted heavily on the bearish side despite the late day comeback in stocks. 90.6% of total NYSE volume was to the downside and there were 2,569 decliners and only 446 advancers. But volume overall was very light at only 871 million shares traded. Not typical of a large 3rd wave down starting as some wavers may be leaning towards at the moment. That's not to say they're wrong, I just don't see the evidence here. First you have a 3 wave decline from the high on the year, then it flip flopps around on light volume......that doesn't seem like a big 3rd wave kick off, but we'll see.
Excluding the wave count, the bears can hang their hats on two things in my view:
1) the S&P has formed what looks like a head shoulders top on the daily chart.
2) the Nasdaq 100 has diverged from the rest of the major indices and made a new high on the year and that divergence has now been in place for several days, often a subtle indicator of a trend reversal in the overall market.
So the wave count and internals don't support a big decline is starting right now while basic techincal analysis does. With an indecisive and unclear market structure, I choose to stand aside until things clear up a bit.
EURO
As for the euro, it's not behaving like I'd expect a 3rd wave to behave so I'm skeptical of my big bearish call. But on the daily charts you can see it made a new low and hasn't bounced much since doing so. So I'm still leaning toward the bearish side in the short term at least, as long as 1.4577 is not broken.
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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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