Tuesday, August 2, 2011
S&P Breaking Down? Euro Continuing Lower
S&P momentum is clearly down at the moment, but you can see how wild the market has been the past few days to where it can turn on a dime at any moment. So be careful. I want to see the S&P break down before I get short with confidence. Making new lows beneath 1258.07, and especially 1249.05 would be a good sign that the larger trend has reversed to down, and that the big head and shoulders pattern top may be in force. If so, the S&P has big downside potential and I want to capitalize on it. But I'm not getting sucked into a trap, so I want to be patient and make the market prove to me that it's time to get short.
To keep me honest, I have to respect the potential for a triangle-like consolidation that's occuring which means there will be a very sharp and long rally coming at any time. But if 1258.07 and 1249.05 are taken out, then that bullish consolidation potential will be significantly diminished. So I'll wait for that breakdown to occur before I get short.
Using Elliott Waves: As Simple As A-B-C
The euro has been a choppy mess downward, making it hard to develop a high confidence wave count at the moment. But the series of lower highs and lower lows is well intact so the path of least resistance is down. I'm bearish the euro as long as 1.4453 remains intact.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.