Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Stocks Might be in Triangle, but does it Matter Right Now?

No, it doesn't matter right now, in my opinion.  There are several interpretations of wave labels that are in play.  I listed a few last week.  But all have one thing in common, a new low beneath 1100 (Minor wave 3 in the above chart).  So I don't want to get caught up in trying to exactly pin the market down to which count is correct.  I want to just ride the wave down and see what happens once new lows are made to determine if I should hold short, or cover.

The up-down nature of the market lately with almost no net result positive or negative combined with weakening volume suggest a triangle might be forming. I labeled it above.  A triangle would be very good for wavers because triangles only occur in X, B and 4th waves.  So a triangle will significantly help us narrow down the larger wave count with higher probability and help us predict with more certainty of future movement.  Triangles also precede terminal thrusts, meaning that a sharp move will occur when the triangle is finished and then reverse completely.  So short term traders can make quick profits with little risk on that thrust.

Let's keep tracking this triangle count.  Of course it's all about probabilities and I'm not 100% sure the triangle is occurring right now.  But it's definitely a tradeable structure for those familiar with the rules for a tirangle.  But still, keep in mind we might also be in a 5th wave down and they are often tricky.  Many times one or just a few indices will make new lows, or only do so on a closing basis, making it tricky to know when to get out before a big reversal.  So I'm keeping a close eye on the overall market looking for any sign that may have us conclude a major bottom is in.  Right now it doesn't appear we're there quite yet.

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Counting waves here would be sloppy and irresponsible in my view.  I need more of the structure to unfold before doing so.  Labeling the chart now could only be done if I were to be very very creative.  And that baiscally means I'm forcing my own bias onto the market and making my wave counts support my bias.  I don't want to do that so I'm just looking at chart basics.  And those basics say the euro looks broken down here with more to go on the downside.  As I said many times the past few weeks, the euro's multi-week consolidation would result in a sharp move in either direction.  That direction was down, obviously, and it doesn't appear over.  It's probably just taking a breather before falling lower.  There's no evidence a bottom is in so I favor the short side.

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Ondas Elliot said...

You have an estimate of how far the wave could reach 5? Thanks

PrincipleAnalysis_Blogspot_Com said...

5th waves often equal wave 1, or a fibonacci relationship of 1, often 1.68.  So if wave 4 has already ended at 1230.71 then the wave 5 targets would be at 1118.20 and 1041.69.  But if wave 4 is a triangle, then wave 4 hasn't ended yet and we can't estimate where wave 5 ends at this point.

Putting the details aside, I think in general the S&P's wave 5 will end in the 1050-1100 area.  I know it's a wide range but it's far enough away from today's close to offer a good risk/reward for the bears.

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