Monday, December 26, 2011
Stocks Float Higher on Light Volume; Euro Still Very Bearish
I want to take a moment to thank you all for another pleasant year here on the blog. I feel I'm very fortunate to have such an intelligent and friendly group of folks here who read the blog and post their comments for all of us to read. Also, many of you have clicked the sponsor's links I post here, signed up for Elliott Wave International's free Club Memberships, and even ordered some of their high quality products. All of the above keep me motivated to continue posting throughout the year. Hopefully we can continue to get more high quality readers and comments through 2012, and if so I can assure you that I'll be here, posting my thoughts and engaging in discussions with you all so we can help each other navigate these markets better, and learn off each other. I wish you all a very happy and successful 2012!
Speaking of the holiday season, I hope you're all enjoying it as much as I am. I'm pretty much just sleeping 9 hours a day, stuffing my face with tons of leftovers which segues nicely into my noon time nap where I wakeup to watch football, eat again, watch a movie and then go to bed. My goal is to get so fat that I need to be rolled around the house to do basic stuff. Then, I get back into shape after the New Year.
The market action doesn't mean much to me right now since volume is so light and end of year maneuvering is occurring. The wave count remains the same with the option of one more new high to around 1300 to mark the end of Intermediate wave (2). This is not required although it would make more sense as far as the wave count goes. The move down from my first proposed Intermediate wave (2) high (1292 on Oct 27th) is clearly a 3 wave move, and the behavior since that move has been far from being "wave 3 like" since it has just flopped around sideways on light volume since then. Another new high around 1300, or just above it, to mark wave (2)'s end followed by sharp selling on high volume would be a much more ideal scenario. So I'll wait for that to occur to ramp up my short position again.
"Market Manipulation" Is Not Why Most Traders Lose
Looking at the S&P's SPDR you can see how volume has fallen off a cliff during the recent rise. The market can continue to do this for a few more days into the New Year, but I wouldn't be piling up on the long side here. Once volume re-enters the market after the New Year, stocks should fall. Until then I wait.......and eat......then take a nap....eat again.....and roll over to the TV to watch the football games.
Learn Elliott Wave Principle (EWP)
The euro has been a cash cow for the bears the past couple months, again not failing me for the bearish November/December scenario I've talked about the past few years. The trend remains firmly down. There is a nice long reversal candlestick wick at the 1.3200 area that suggests strong resistance at that level. I have my aggressive short position set to stop out on a move just above that level.
Happy New Year to you all!!
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.