This Elliott Wave blog is dedicated to sharing Fibonacci ratios and other technical analysis for forex signals, index futures signals, options signals, and stock signals. Elliott Wave Principle puts forth that people move in predictive patterns, called waves. Identify the wave counts, and you can predict the market.
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Stocks Testing Wave Count; Euro Bullish Short Term
Stocks have continued higher, much further and long than I expected. My stops have been broken numerous times and my frustration with stocks continues. Without a new high above 1422, the above count remains intact. The risk/reward favors the bears.
There a few momentum divergences in place with the new highs achieved over the past few weeks, but this one is the most compelling for the bears in my opinion. The SPY (tracks S&P) has had its volume fall off a cliff while price has made several new highs. This doesn't mean a top is in, but it does mean that there will most likely be a sharp and deep decline once price finally does top.
I thought the euro had completed its upward correction and was on its decent to new lows again last week. But on the 4 hour chart there is a big bullish reverals candlestick that give me pause. I would have to conclude that a bottom is in for the euro for the time being, and getting long for a short term trade seems wise as long as 1.2240 holds.