Thursday, March 31, 2016

Elliott Wave Futures - S&P Futures (ES)

Elliott Wave Blog Futures - S&P Futures (ES)

I keep trying to develop a viable bearish count, meaning that the rally over the past several months is just a correction. I can do it if I just look at labeling waves just a few months back, but when including the entire history of the S&P, I find it very difficult.  All I am left with is two different degrees of bullish counts that look like higher levels are right around the corner.  With the jobs number coming out tomorrow, we could get a sharp pop higher and then reversal in the same day.  As long as 2008 remains intact, I remain cautiously bullish.

However, I do note that now 127 stocks on my proprietary indicators have sell signals while only 12 have long signals. This is a very strong indication that a pullback is close.

Elliott Wave Blog Futures - S&P Futures (ES) alternate

Here is an alternate count with larger degree waves.  Looking at some channel and wave ratio analysis, the projected target for wave 5 is about 2100.  This fits well with my projection several weeks ago and is a nice round number for resistance.

So, both counts are bullish in the short term, but both are 5th waves so I would be looking for weakness after a sharp burst higher.

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