Tuesday, August 5, 2008

August 5, 2008; Market Setting up for Big Selloff pt. II

Now here's a daily chart of the S&P to keep the bigger perspective. Here I have a wave count that shows a series of 1's and 2's. I don't like to do this because this is usually not likely. But until the markets break the levels I mentioned in the prior post, this count remains valid.

One good fundamental piece that really supports this wave count is the Fed meeting today. The market is rallying big this morning, for whatever reason, like it usually does before a Fed meeting. Then either right after the meeting, or just a couple days after the meeting, a big selloff occurs. Well, if you see my wave count on the chart above, it would show that we're setting up for a wave iii of (iii) of 3. If this is the case, this would mean a massive selloff in a straight line down is about to occur. That fits nicely into the Fed decision this morning.

The key to remember is that the larger trend is down and we will get to much lower levels. I know where I'm wrong, I noted the key levels in the prior post. So if I'm proven wrong, I'll simply look for other possibilities that might be occuring. But all of my alternate counts point to the markets rolling over big eventually. So I know it's going to happen, it's the "when?" that I'm working on. Right now, I think it will be after the Fed meeting either this afternoon or tomorrow.

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