Wednesday, August 6, 2008

August 6, 2008; Waiting....

Unfortunately my short Dow emini futures position was stopped out last night at 11,605. So I have no futures position in right now. I do still have my core ETF positions shorting the 3 major indices. WIth a break of the Dow's key level, and the rally being much deeper than I thought it would go yesterday, I'm on the sidelines waiting for the market to play out a bit here. There's some weakness this morning as the Dow is down almost 100, but after a full day of nothing but rallying, that's expected. I still expect for more rallying by the end of the day, and probably the rest of the week. If not, it might be very bearish. The lack of follow through may be a sign of a topping process. But I still want to see what happens today and tomorrow.

I was also stopped out of my USD/CHF short position this morning.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Key action today. No give back on the rally so far. 1288 shaping up as key right now. Overnight highs holding. We may very well go higher but the jury is still out. I agree with you that if we stop here and now and turn down it could get ugly in a hurry. I'm shorting against key levels with tight stops. Short now against 1288. If stopped will short again in the mid to high 90's against 1300. If stopped will short again in the teens against 1325. Don't want to miss the next down leg! We shall see. :-) Diver

Todd S said...

Good strategy Diver. It takes a lot of discipline to keep doing that and not change, but it's the way to go here. I fear waiting for confirmation of the next wave down may result in a 80 S&P selloff before that occurs, then the risk level will be too great. I see various possible wave counts, and like you're strategy, they all roll over at various levels. So it can happen any time.

Can't wait for it to happen. Gonna be big.

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