Friday, December 19, 2008

Despite Modest Sell Off, NDX and Breadth Still Strong; Dec. 19, 2008

Despite the sell off after the opening rally, breadth is still positive on the NYSE and Nasdaqs are well outperforming the S&P and Dow. These are not the characteristics of the downtrend resuming. This doesn't mean I'm a staunch bull, but I don't any signs or reasons to get aggressively short. I'm still long the S&P and short various ETFs (XLE, XLU and XLK), plus short gold.


Michael K. said...

Hang in there Todd, I am waiting for one more rally before I sell, if the breath doesn't go up with the rally, then I am definitely selling. :)
So there won't be any Santa for Christmas?

Todd S said...

Looking at the short term 15min S&P chart you can see an uptrend with higher lows formed. The last swing low is 885. A break of that level would warn of a break in the rally phase, but a break of the 850 swing high would confirm it. Breaking those leves on big volume and weak breadth would be a shorting opportunity. Otherwise, I'm remaining cautious and placing small trades for quick profits and type stops.

Good luck!

Todd S said...

CORRECTION, I said 885 as the last signficant swing low, I meant 877. So it's 877, not 885!