Monday, September 21, 2009

Today's Early 5 Wave Drop, so Far Just Part of ABC Correction; September 21, 2009

Today the market dropped in a clear 5 waves right at the open, but has since rallied hard and the Nasdaq (higher risk index) is leading the way higher and is in positive territory as I'm writing this. As you can see, the above chart labels the decline starting from last week as an ABC correction, with this morning's 5 wave drop being wave C. So as it stands now, as long as the S&P trades above 1057 then the decline should be considered corrective, and new highs will follow. IF the S&P breaks below 1057 then it will signal that possibly something bigger is occurring. The EUR/USD has appeared to have formed a top, or is real close, and China's index continues to selloff sharply with it down over 3% on Friday and did not recover today. I'll assess the bigger picture when 1057 is broken.

In summary: the stock market is bullish as long as the S&P stays above 1057. A break below 1057 may signal that a larger decline is underway and I'll assess at the time to try and determine the magnitude.


Gustavo said...

Hello Todd:

I had not luck, because I enter long the USD/CHF in 1.0354 today and now is 1.0324 undefined.
I think the end of this rally will be the next numbers:SP500-1120.1(50% fibo retracement);DJI-10350.6(Idem, but have more space to growth in relation to SP500);Nasdaq-2252.5(78.6%).
EUR/USD I hope will stop the rally in 1.4853 I cannot explain well why, but in this site they are seeing a problematic to me 1.5080 and more...
I ear the voices what are talking about the desaparition of the dollar and the duplication of the gold price with emotion. I can't believe nothing of this. The end is near.
Good luck!!!

Todd S said...

The market did not break the level I put forth so I'm looking for higher levels in the stock market. the 1100-1120 area in the S&P should be strong resistance. The EUR/USD should have a hard time rising above 1.4850. The dollar is leading the charge higher and lower. When the EUR/USD tops, so will the stock market.