Monday, October 19, 2009

VIX Declinese Further Warning of Extremely Dangerous Complacency

Today the market rallied higher allowing the S&P cash to fill a previous gap left at 1099 from the previous selloff phase we had many months ago. More importantly in my view is the VIX. The VIX has dropped lower now and is almost in the teens now, it's broken to a new yearly low, and is testing the bottom of the bollinger band (see above chart with orange bollinger bands). A close beneath that bottom bollinger band and then a close above the same band later will be a strong bearish signal that the market will sell off hard. Most likely wave 3 or C. Despite this happening, the VIX tells us that at these levels, there is almost no fear in the market and that complacency is at its highest levels all year from this indicator. This occurs at tops, not at the start of bull runs.

A top is near. I'm waiting for signs of that top and reversal any day now, and will report them here when I see them.

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