Friday, October 22, 2010

Uptrend Still Intact

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Did people know the market was open today?  Sure didn't feel like it.  Other than the Nasdaqs, it was a snoozefest today.  There was no real news out today, low volume on the uptrend has been the situation the past few months anyway, and the fact that it's a Friday may all lend itself today's lackluster day.  But in my opinion, having a light volume day like this after such a big uptrend is like a boxer putting his hands behind his back for a few seconds.  It was a good opportunity for the bears to strike since the bulls were light today. But the bears didn't strike, and the uptrend remains intact from a technical perspective, so I have to conclude that we're looking at higher levels ahead. 

Other than the Nasdaqs, the market didn't do anything to change my charts from yesterday so I'm just posting my primary long term count from yesterday again.  Just to reiterate, until the market proves to me the bears are in control, I'm looking for new highs on the year in at least some indices/sectors before Primary wave ((2)) tops.  If the bulls do not allow a meaningful decline beforehand, and alleviate the severe overbought condition the market's in right now, it means that new highs should be short lived and sharply reversed.  But that's later on and very speculative.  As for the short term, I'm looking for higher levels.

In the short term, the 3 wave drops and 5 wave rallies are still front page on my radar.  And the Nasdaq Composite would end up sporting a triple top if it were to fall from current levels.  Triple tops are extremely rare.  So it appears the Nasdaq will shoot higher from here.

On the daily Nasdaq Composite chart you can see what I mean when I say the uptrend is still intact.  The series of higher lows and higher highs continues, and an uptrend line remains well intact.  Only a breakdown of that trendline, preferably impulsively, and lower lows will start the wheels in motion to move towards calling a top.  But right now, the evidence suggests higher levels ahead.

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The VIX wave count still remains intact but is running out of room to fall.  I don't hold wave counts in the VIX very reliable as I've said before, but the 5 wave rally last week combined with other signs of a top in equities made it a compelling at the time.  But the slow choppy grind lower has been quite extended and I'd expect sharp rallies and declines if the VIX had formed a major bottom.  But without a new low, the count is still technically valid, and is one piece of evidence that might suggest the top in equities isn't as far away as I may think.

Nothing has changed in my analysis of the euro and it barely moved since last night.  The 3 wave drop and sharp rally this week make it appear we need another test of the highs before a top can called.  We should get some movement early next week after the G20 meeting, and as we get closer to the elections and the Fed meeting and more of the delicious QE2 everyone loves (input sarcasm here).

Speaking of the G20 meeting over the weekend, with the evidence appearing that we still need more new highs in at least some participants in the equity markets to even consider finding a top, I suspect Monday will be a strong up-day early as a result of that G20 meeting.  But the action following the big upward spike Monday will be even more telling.  So we watch.....and we wait....

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