Friday, September 2, 2011
Wave 5 Begins for Stocks; Euro Trying to Break Down
Those Steely-Eyes of J.P. Morgan: Could They Help Us Today?
"The Panic of 1907" vs. the "Debt Crisis" of 2011
-Elliott Wave International
This reason this count seems possible to me is because it would explain why the recent rally took so much longer than its corresponding rally I originally labeled Minor wave 2. There isn't very good proportionality there. And although it doesn't violate any EWP rules, it doesn't adhere to EWP's guidelines for a "right look". But the big problem with this count is that Intermediate wave (1) looks much more like a 3 wave decline than a 5 wave impulsive decline. So that's a big problem to overcome. It's possible to get real creative and cram an impulsive wave count into Intermediate wave (1)'s subdivisions. But I don't like to "cram" anything since doing so usually means the count is wrong and that I've fallen victim to my own biases causing me to force the count I want onto the market instead of letting the market tell me what the count is.
Anyway, I'm playing the market based on the count at the top of this post which means I'm expecting a move to at least the 1100 level. I have a very small short position and will take profits on a break below 1100 unless volume and internals are so severely bearish that it warrants adhering to the other more aggressively bearish count.
Learn Elliott Wave Principle
The bearish side of the euro is looking good here. After a tight consolidation pattern and false breakout to the upside, the euro is declining impulsively to the downside. I favor the short side on this pair, which means I'm bullish the US dollar.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.