The S&P made a new high today, negating the possible 5 wave decline following the proposed Minor wave 4. I would have gotten long this market today if volume wasn't so low. Today the NYSE couldn't even bust through 1 billion shares on this huge surge today. That's troubling for this rally right now.
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EWP has a small set of rules that absolutely must be followed when developing a wave count. And EWP has even more guidelines that are "best practices" so to speak, that allow for wiggle room to fudge and disregard under certain circumstances and scenarios. One of those guidelines is EWP's "right look". For example, if the S&P dropped in what looks like an impulsive 5 wave move without violating any EWP rules, but wave 2 rallies 20 points over 3 days and wave 4 rallies 150 points over 3 months, then something is most likely wrong with the wave count labeling, most likely with the degree of trend.
Right now we don't have that severity in wave discrepency, but wave 4 is getting quite long in time, and today's new high doesn't help matters, so it's making me uncomfortable continuing to try and short here. The only thing keeping me from getting long here is volume. Notice on the SPY (S&P ETF) chart above that on this current rally phase we're in volume has continued to decline. That doesn't strike me as the behavior I'd expect to see at the start of a new bull market, but rather the behavior I would expect to see in a correction. So I have conflicting views here which are rendering me immobile, like when the Joker would tie Batman up in an elaborate way to destroy him. Only I'm not Batman, and I don't have a trusty tool belt with wonderful toys to get me out of a jam. I only have a computer and some cheap scotch to help me.
The make or break point for Minor wave 4 to end is 1295.92. Risking 85 S&P points here with a questionable wave count is too risky for my blood. But if the market falls hard with little 5 wave moves and strong volume this week, I'd be willing to get short with a stop just above that day's high.
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The euro might be trying to break out of its consolidation to the upside. I'm still neutral this pair and don't have a trade here.