Monday, October 5, 2009

Rally Today Strong Internally, But Momentum Waning Now Perhaps; October 5, 2009

With no news really out today the market is drifting higher on light volume and strong internals. There's no reason to sell today as most seem to have already dumped their shares last week who wanted to. Now the vultures are coming in to "buy the dips" and cherry pick the stocks they've wanted for a while. The internals are strong so I'm not sure this market's rally can really stop any time soon, however on the five minute chart of the Dow compared to the Nasdaq 100 (see above chart, click on pic to see it bigger) you can see that the orange Nasdaq 100 line is not confirming the Dow's latest new high, and neither has the Russell 2000, both indices are high risk indices and often lead the market. Also notice at the bottom that the stochastics (momentum indicator) is also diverging lower. Now this is just a 5 minute time frame and the bearish case can easily be erased with one strong push higher, but as of right now, the blue chip Dow and S&P seem to be rising on their own which many times leads to a top. As long as this little divergence exists, then it's possible a top is forming. However with the strong internals and no catalysts out there, it seems hard pressed to selloff at this point. We'll see.

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