Wednesday, October 7, 2009

S&P Breakout Coming; October 7, 2009

As investors stand by on hold for earnings reports to kick off the S&P appears to be consolidating very tightly in a 4th wave triangle (see above S&P 15min chart). This will result in a strong rally thrust to a new daily high at least before reversing to the apex of the triangle at a minimum. If it breaks 1080, the highs of last month, and then sharply reverses well below the apex, then it may signal "The Top" is in. I'll be looking at the action of the dollar for clues as well. It's also possible the consolidation will lead to a break down to lower levels suggesting the triangle was a B wave and the thrust lower is a C wave. This would result in an eventual big rally above the previous wave 3 top at 1061 at a minimum before topping. But at this point, odds favor that the consolidation is a 4th wave that will lead to a thrust higher. The action after the thrust will help determine what type of top had formed.

So we wait for now and let the market play out the way it wants to.

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