Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Stock Market is on its Way to New Highs Above 1080; October 6, 2009

The bullishness from yesterday was not immediately reversed this morning and as a matter of fact today is even more bullish than yesterday. Observe the NYSE internals, they are stronger than yesterday's, and only 50 stocks on the S&P 500 are trading down. No one is selling, just like no one sold yesterday. This also creates overlapping waves and an apparent 3 wave ABC decline. This means new highs must be achieved for a top to form.

The difficulty of this rally to count and predict is making me thing that perhaps the first obvious 5 wave decline from 2007 was a wave A, not a wave 1. That would put us in a B wave. B waves are the hardest to count, and in my opinion, basically just do their own thing and are all over the place. That's what this is turning into. It still means that a large strong C wave will take place where if it equals wave A then it will take about 880 S&P points off once wave B tops. It's just that the market will bottom and reverse after wave C, and that it may not be as long or powerful as wave 3 would be.

I'm not there yet though, I'll wait to confirm a new high above 1080 before I start giving it serious thought. But with Robert Prechter appearing to be wrong in calling a top in September stating to Bloomberg, "Stocks peaked in September and are back in a bear market." (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azTL.7ZtDots), and NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini who has been at the forefront of the last market crash has become "less bearish" it tells me that if both of them ertr wrong (at least on a short term basis), something is amist. However we cannot ignore that the market fell in a very clear 5 wave pattern from the 2007 highs, and that means that the larger trend is down, and most likely it's going to be a wave 3 or C. So I remain a longer term bear.

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