Thursday, October 8, 2009

The S&P is Thrusting From a Triangle as Forecast; October 8, 2009

Yesterday I discussed that the consolidation we saw was part of a 4th wave triangle in the S&P and most likely a thrust to a new high was likely today. That's occuring today as you can see from the above 15min S&P cash chart. The problem for the bears is that this is a clear 5 wave rise yet it doesn't look like it will have enough steam to push to a new high above 1080. So most likely that means it's only a wave 1 within a larger 5 wave advance. So once this thrust is over, it will retrace back to at least the apex of the triangle around 1054 before surging a strong wave 3 rally that should easily get to the 1100-1120 area. This means we probably have a few more weeks of rallying. On top of that, the EUR/USD also traced out a 5 wave rally and did not make new high above 1.4843 either.

The five wave rallies in the stock market and EUR/USD without making new highs tells me the larger trend is still up and we still have a few more weeks and higher levels before considering a top again.

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