The Wait Continues

Internals today were a bit unusual.  The advancers vs. decliners in the NYSE and S&P were both very bullish, yet volume and up volume was quite timid compared to the advancers:decliner ratio.  If a little more volume came into this market it probably would've resulted in a much greater advance for the day.  But volume didn't come in, and the market flattened out after the initial morning surge, leaving us with a fairly solid close higher today.  Again, the bulls are having trouble pushing the market higher and sustaining it, the internals support that.  But on the flipside, the bears aren't doing much either, so the market is still able to float higher for now.  This is typical behavior for this time of year though, so without signs of a reversal, we should expect higher levels and wait to get short in my opinion.

The wave count has us waiting for Minute wave ((v)) to end.  With the holiday season and typical light and bullish trading until after the New Year upon us, I could easily see this market holding up until early January.  It's certainly not my prefered outlook, but definitely possible considering the typically bullish time of year we're in now.  I would steer clear of short term long positions here and either establish shorts now with well defined risk, or wait until a good shorting opportunity arises that allows for managing risk properly.  The bottom line is that for the short term, I think the next good opportunity will be to the downside.

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The euro challenged the congestion area surrounding 1.3200 I mentioned yesterday which I said could act as temporary support.  It did just that today, and now is pushing higher up off that support floor.  In light trading it might be hard to bust through that support level, and it's possible to count 5 waves down on the intraday charts suggesting a bounce is do, but eventually I do feel that it's likely the 1.3200 level will be taken out handily in the near future.  Doing so would instill more confidence in the aggressively bearish count above.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Market Looking Very Vulnerable

Don’t look at the Dow.  I’m not sure who still follows the Dow as a market barometer anymore, but if anyone still does, don’t look at it today.  The true story is in the S&P, and even the NYSE today.  You can see the true bearish picture I’ve mentioned this week as it’s starting to come through now with a solid down-day in the markets today.  Volume was solid for the holiday season today, but still relatively light compared normal days.  Decliners and down volume were both solidly bearish, which continues the trend we’ve been seeing all week, despite how prices in the major indices closed.  Internals were and market action overall was quite bearish in my view.  The market looks very weak and vulnerable right now.

Also note that bonds have been selling off ferociously lately causing interest rates to rise, signaling fear entering the bond market.  I read an article last week on CNBC that stated the Freddie Mac 30 year fixed mortgage rate hit its lowest level in like 40 years at 4.17% back in early November after the QE2 announcement.  Today, Yahoo Finance reports the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate is at 5.00%.  Also, notice that the TLT which tracks the 20 year treasury bond has fallen off a cliff in an impulsive 5 wave move, interest rates move opposite to that.  Many folks feel that the bond market is often a leading indicator since bond investors tend to be more long term and prudent than equity traders, so the bond market tends to lead the equity market.  If so, equities are about to fall off a cliff just like bonds have.

Today’s decline appears to be a “breakdown point”.  We’ll only know if this is true in the coming days, but looking at the wave count, the diverging momentum as seen through the RSI above, and the action in the price bars, one can logically conclude that the market’s odds are heavily leaning towards the bears.  Regardless of the bigger picture, and whether this is the Primary wave ((2)) top or not, the short term picture strongly suggests that when the market does top and reverse, it should fall hard and in a hurry.  I would not want to be in a short term bullish position in the S&P here at all.  So I would think that the bears should start positioning themselves for a decline.  We don’t have confirmation that a top is in yet, so risk must still be controlled to account for a possible rally to new highs.  But the bears should be putting strategy to work here and get ready for a slide downward soon.

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My euro comments didn’t come through yesterday for some reason and I didn’t notice it until this morning so I posted a brief summary of what I originally wanted to post then.  Sorry about that.

The euro’s decline recently is very encouraging for the bears.  Although I’ve been mentioning that my wave count does not instill a high amount of confidence since Minute wave ((ii)) which  is one degree smaller than Minor wave 2 is actually much greater in both price and time.  This is unusual and makes me a cautious bear here, but I still remain a bear as long as 1.3785 remains intact.  The euro is trading at a very strong congestion area that MAY act as a floor temporarily at the 1.3200 level.  A solid breakdown of that level will negate the bullish implications of the strong rally we got from earlier in the week, and also make the rally off the 1.3000 level a confirmed 3 wave move, which is a correction.  So I would become more aggressive on the bearish side once we get that solid breakdown of 1.3200.  The bearish action the British pound and precious metals is also an encouraging sidebar for the euro bears as well. 

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Scrooge is Creeping in....

Internals today on the NYSE were bearish despite the closing numbers on the major indices.  There were more decliners than advancers, and more down volume than up volume on the day.  So internally there are signs of weakness to the rally, and it’s also diverging from the internals we saw during Minute wave ((iii)), which is typical behavior for a 5^th wave.  So I like the wave count we’re tracking now.

If the above count is correct, Minute wave ((v)) can complete at any time, but more importantly it would mean that Primary wave ((2)) may complete at any time as well.  Along with the internals, momentum is also diverging during this 5^th wave as you can see from the RSI on the daily chart above.  A nice one or two down days should drop the RSI and confirm the divergence.  I see no signs of a top in place now, but it can happen at any time so I’m waiting and watching closely.  The decline that occurs after the top should be large and strong, whether or not it’s Primary wave ((3)) or not.  So I feel the best opportunity ahead is for the bears to look for positioning, and that the bulls should be taking profits here.

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Despite the Dow and S&P’s two up days lately, the higher risk indices are not following along.  The Russell 2000 small caps and XLF financials ETF have both had two fairly big down days in a row.  So behind the scenes we see the internals are looking bearish and the higher risk indices are starting to falter.  So the signs are there that a big selloff is coming, it’s just a matter of when.  We’ve seen this before though, where all the signs are there but no confirmation occurs and we end up with higher levels for quite a while.  So I don’t want to jump the gun, especially when it might hard getting a selloff during the holiday season here.  But as long as the signs are there, we should be mindful of them, and be ready to strike when the opportunity presents itself.

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The euro needs to get moving to the downside real quick to keep the bears hopes alive.  It's already looking unlikely that a wave 2 that's two degrees smaller is much larger in size than Minor wave 2.  But it could still be possible.  As long as 1.3785 remains intact, I feel the bears have the upper hand.



PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Is Today's Late Day Reversal Meaningful? Euro Bears Beware

Just a note: with the holidays upon us, my posting schedule will be a bit light until after the New Year.  If something significant happens then I’ll make sure I post something.  But for the most part, posts should pretty much be from Monday –Thursday and a bit short until something big happens.

And on that note, we go into the analysis of another flat closing day.  Gee, what a surprise, a do-nothing day, at least as far as price goes.  Volume was light as it came in under 1 billion shares on the NYSE, yet despite a steady float higher all day in price by all the major indices, the NYSE decliners beat advancers at the close on the NYSE.  Up volume still exceeded down volume, but the fact that more stocks participated in the downside reversal this afternoon MAY be a very quiet sign that a top is occurring.

My patience is running out for the wave count I’ve been tracking to be held with a high degree of confidence.  The Minute wave ((iv)) is getting quite long compared to Minute wave ((ii)), especially since Minuette wave (c) hasn’t even started yet.  The other problem is that when I count it like I am above, then Minute wave ((iv)) is quite small compared to Minute wave ((ii)).  So, neither of these counts are very appealing here.  The market won’t unfold perfectly though, so I want to remain flexible.  At this point in the market’s rally I’d be very cautious if I were a short term bull though.  And short term bears should be gearing up for opportunities to get short this market.  Today’s sharp afternoon selloff MAY be a sign of further selling coming up this week, so be ready.  Depending on the speed and strength of the decline coming, I’ll be able to put one of these counts as top choice over the other.  But for the short term, no matter what the count is, the market looks very toppish at the moment.

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Another thing to note is the action in the higher risk markets like the Nasdaqs, XLF and the Russell 2000.  These two have been shooting straight up lately, well exceeding the S&P and Dow’s rallies.  But today they showed weakness, and sharp reversals greater than that of the Dow and S&P.  Just look at the daily chart on the XLF how it shot higher to a new high during the day, but then closed lower than Friday’s close by the end of the day.  That mildly bearish indicator may be a whisper in our ears of a top in place.  It obviously can’t be confirmed yet, but it’s something to watch. 

I don’t like to short the S&P when I see high risk indices still in full bull mode, but I do like to at least think about getting short when I see high risk markets reverse and/or show weakness. 

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As for the euro, it rallied sharply, in an almost straight line up, breaking the trend of lower highs and lower lows.  More importantly, it broke above my key level at 1.3430.  If the euro is in a Subminuette wave (ii) like I have it labeled, then it will be extremely large in comparison to Minor wave 2 which is two degrees larger.  So this is unlikely in my view and it makes the bearish stance on the euro much less desirable at this point.  The euro needs to embark on an extremely sharp decline real soon to get me short term bearish again.  But right now I’d like to be only half short for long term trading, or have no position at all.    

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Nothing Changed for Stocks; Euro Bears Happy

I wish I had something interesting to say today but I don't.  Nothing has changed for stocks and nothing signficant has occurred worth noting right now.  Volume barely stayed above 1 billion shares on the NYSE, so interest has really trailed off this week.  I'm still waiting for the sharp move that should be right around the corner.  My guess is that the move will be down.

I'm just posting my primary count here which calls for a sharp impulsive (c) wave lower at any time now.  My alternate count from yesterday is posted here.  I do feel the market is gearing up for a sharp move, and the evidence suggests that the move will be to the downside.  But as long as 1129.24 remains intact, I'd view any decline as part of a larger correction. 

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The euro continued lower last night in the European session, giving the bears some relief for the time being.  A series of lower highs and lower lows has been established, but they are ovelapping waves at the moment, so caution is still warranted for the bears.  As long as the euro stays below 1.3325, I feel comfortable remaining aggressively bearish.  But a break above that level will get me to cover some of my shorts.  I'll cover ALL my short positions on a break above 1.3785.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Stocks Still Look to Decline Soon; Euro Bears use Caution

Other than precious metals, there’s nothing exciting to report today and nothing has really changed from yesterday other than some added risk for the bears in the euro.  Internals today were average, with volume at 1.1 billion shares and slight bullish bias; a bit more than what I’d expect for such a flat close today.  This is essentially the opposite of what occurred in yesterday’s flat close that had a strong bearish bias internally.  So maybe things evened out a bit today.

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The above two counts remain my top choices right now.  The flat correction for Minute wave ((iv)) is my preferred count, and Minute wave ((iv)) already complete and Minute wave ((v)) finishing up right now as my alternate count.  The action in the coming days should help us remove one of these from top contention.  Ultimately, 1129.24 is key for the bulls.  A break below that level would signal that a major top was likely in place.  Until then, we just have to do the best we can in maneuvering the short term gyrations of the market.

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The euro’s action is getting me concerned a little as a bear here.  On the daily chart you can see that so far the decline is only 3 waves, which just a correction.  But that will only be confirmed with a rally above the Minor wave 2 high at 1.3785.  Recently, we had a Minute wave ((ii)) complete and another wave i and ii decline follow.  Now the euro looks to have hit a floor today, so the next sharp move to a new extreme will be telling.  Like I’ve said many times though, when I have to label my wave count with a lot of waves 1s and 2s only, then it’s most likely wrong.  We’re starting to fall into that category now with the euro.  Nothing’s confirmed though yet since no new highs have been made, but once a new swing high is registered, sound the alarms.  This means the larger bearish case is rapidly and protecting gains is paramount to trying to grind out more future gains.  So I’d like to see more selling enter this market soon to new lows so I can regain confidence in my bearish counts here.

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Aside from the downtrend of lower highs and lower lows still intact, another reason I want to remain bearish the euro is the action in precious metals, specifically silver.  Silver has really surged this year and has shot significantly higher now for the second time and reversed.  Looking at the daily chart you can see what I’m talking about.  Also notice that the RSI is not confirming the new highs, probably due to the fact that the rallies have been so quickly reversed.  But it seems that silver and gold are forming tops that may last a while.  If so, I’d say it’s likely that the euro will be under pressure as well. 

My make or break point for the bearish euro case is the Minor wave 2 high 1.3785, but breaking above any previous swing highs on its way up to the level will still get me to start reducing my position size.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Stocks and Euro Look Bearish Here

Nice action today in the markets because it seems it has cleared up some of the clouds hovering over my wave counts.  And more importantly, I think I have a better idea of the wave count we should follow for the short term. 

The market was strong most of the day and reversed into the close.  In addition, volume was big today at 1.6 billion shares on the NYSE.  So today’s rally and reversal into negative territory in some indices on big volume smells like a bullish capitulation to me.  I expect today’s reversal to continue at least tomorrow, if not the rest of the week.  The bears should be in control now.

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The new highs today pretty much put the triangle at the bottom of the list right now.  It could be an “irregular triangle”, but it’s taken so much time compared to Minute wave ((ii)), and it has only completed Minuette waves (a) and (b) of the triangle.  So it’s unlikely at this point, but still possible.  I’m taking it from my top choice and moving it to my bottom choice now.

There are two much more viable options for likely wave counts I see here.  My top choice is shown above.  It has Minuette wave (b) completing a flat correction, and now a sharp impulsive Minuette wave (c) should take the S&P below Minuette wave (a)’s low to around 1165 or so before bottoming.

The top alternate count has Minute wave ((iv)) already complete, and the subdivisions of Minute wave ((v)) are already underway.  I think Minute wave ((iv)) is a bit too short to make this my top count, but it certainly is a strong contender here.  A sharp impulsive decline right through 1160 will put this count as my top choice.  A break below 1129.24 will in fact make it my top choice and signal that a major top is probably already in.

Both counts suggest the upside is limited, or already done.  So I’d be looking to short at this point.

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The euro rallied strong yesterday but reversed nicely today, keeping the short term wave count intact.  So the euro bears still seem to be in control, although not convincingly quite yet.  As long as the Minor wave 2 high holds, then I’m bearish.  If that high broken though, I’m neutral and out of the way.

Short term I see a nice 5 wave decline and overlapping corrective bounce afterwards.  If my count is correct in both the longer term and short term counts, then the euro should be selling off hard soon.  This also lines up well with my top count for stocks as well which also projects a solid decline coming soon.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Market Set to Decline; Euro Needs to do the Same to Keep the Confidence in my Wave Count

Internals today were as exciting as the price action in the markets.  But there were two things of interest that lend themselves to the short term bearish case in my view:

1) volume was extremely low at 800 million shares on the NYSE which tells me that interest in buying the market at this point in the rally has dissipated drastically.  This leaves the bulls fully exposed here for a gut punch from the bears, if the bears decide to come in here and flex some muscle;

2) the S&P decliners were at 300 today while the market’s price was only slightly down.  I expected a more even advancer vs. decliner ratio with the closing price today.  So again, it appears the bulls are a bit exhausted here and it leaves the bears some opportunity here since they seem to be gaining some momentum in the background.

From a price action and internals perspective, the market rally appears weakened and ready for at least a short term pullback to recharge the bulls.  The market has a rolling-over look to it, and the internals suggest a lack of buying interest at current levels.  But if the bears don’t come in and strike real soon, it will embolden the bulls and surge the market higher as a result.  So tomorrow or Wednesday we should see a sharp move; and my guess is that the move will be down.  How far it drops will help us determine the longer term wave count, but I still think we’re probably in a Minute wave ((iv)) triangle right now.

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Minuette wave (b) should be over at current levels.  A break above the Minute wave ((iii)) high would severely damage the triangle outlook and suggest that probably a flat correction is occurring for Minute wave ((iv)) instead.  The market price action and internals suggest that the market is vulnerable to a bear takeover here, if the bears decide they want to step in. 

If we’re in a triangle, then the market should decline with modest strength to around the 1190 area for Minuette wave (c). 

But if we’re in a flat, at least one index should make a new high above Minute wave ((iii)) and then all the indices should sharply reverse in an impulsive decline for Minuette wave (c) down to the 1160s before bottoming.

So we’ll see which one plays out.  With the holiday season upon us, I’m not expecting any big sustained moves in any direction in the coming weeks.

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The action in the euro last week was a bit concerning.  Right now we only have 3 waves down from the highs which I’m labeling Minor waves 1 and 2, with Minute wave ((i)) and ((ii)) probably complete now.  This is a bit of a problem because with only 3 waves down from the highs, it leaves my impulsive wave count down very vulnerable here.  And now that Minute wave ((ii)) is greater in size than Minor wave 2, it casts some serious doubt about the wave count I have right now.  Waves of smaller degrees should not be bigger in size.  But the key word there is “should”.  This behavior doesn’t violate any EWP rules but seeing as that it does violate a guideline, we need to be vigilant in protecting our short position.  We’ve made a lot of pips on this euro short trade and I’m not going to give them all back because I couldn’t stay objective.  The euro needs to resume its downtrend very soon to eliminate this doubt in my wave count calling for immediate lower levels, but I definitely do not want to be short if it rises above the Minor wave 2 high.  I will stop out above the Minor wave 2 high.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Minuette wave (c) Down to Start Soon; Euro Still Correcting in Minute Wave ((ii))

Internals today showed a very strong bullish bias but volume was a bit tame at just over 1 billion shares traded on the NYSE.  So the big volume numbers that came in on the last selloff have not been matched by the bulls.  But the bulls have still pushed the market significantly higher nonetheless.  Although the internals don’t suggest any bullish exhaustion, the wave count does suggest a reversal to the downside soon.

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Minuette wave (b) should be complete now, or very soon, as it’s at the tail end of my target range of 1210-1220 right now for the triangle scenario to remain valid.  I expect the market to fall immediately in Minuette wave (c) now.  As long as it falls short of breaking below the Minuette wave (a) low then the triangle count for Minute wave ((iv)) is still well intact.  But a break below the Minuette wave (a) low in the 1174 area would negate the triangle count and suggest that some type of zig-zag or combination correction is occurring.  A rally higher would suggest Minute wave ((iv)) is unfolding as a “flat correction” and that once Minuette wave (b) exceeds 1227 then it should reverse sharply in Minuette wave (c) down quite soon.

So unfortunately there are still a lot of options on the table.  The “flat correction” and triangle counts for Minute wave ((iv)) remain my top choice.  So for short term aggressive traders I see an opportunity coming soon on the short side.

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The XLF financials ETF has been on fire this week as you can see from the chart.  The ETF did not break below the extreme low of the previous triangle and has rallied hard once returning to the apex of the triangle earlier.  Also notice that the congestion area I labeled with the blue lines has been broken to the upside as well.  I’m not a buyer of this rally just yet, it’s just too much too fast, and probably based on just news headlines and/or Fed data that’s come out recently.  Neither event tends to start trends, they tend to preface the end of one.  And in this case I’m expecting a fakeout breakout to the upside that will soon be reversed with a shot lower to the downside.  I’m not trading this sector right now as I don’t see a clear entry and risk level that’s appealing, and a reliable wave count eludes me at the moment.  However I think the action and behavior in financials is extremely important to the overall stock market.  As long as the financials lag the overall market on a daily/weekly basis like they have been, I highly doubt a long term rally in stocks as a whole can be sustained.

 

As for the euro, I’m labeling Minute wave ((i)) complete at the 1.30 area and Minute wave ((ii)) underway right now.  The choppy overlapping nature of the rally so far supports the view that it is in fact just a correction.  It can certainly push higher since it does seem a bit small so far, but if it’s in a Minor wave 3 down right now, then rallies could easily be very shallow and weak.  I still feel the longer term trend is firmly down here and I would short rallies as long as it stays below the Minor wave 1 high.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Minuette Wave (b) Almost Complete; Euro Correcting

Short update tonight, I don't have much time.

Internals today were very strong and suggest we'll get some follow through at least tomorrow morning.  The wave count suggests the follow-through will be limited though. I discuss more details of that below.  Volume was not that impressive, but looking at the up volume on the NYSE, and the 484 advancers on the S&P, I'd say the bulls were firmly in control today.  But we've seen the bulls and bears exchange blows back and forth the past couple weeks, so I'm not jumping on the bull train just yet.  In fact, the rally we saw today has been expected for quite a while.  Just check out my prior posts.

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The wave count suggests that Subminuette wave y is near its final stages.  Today was probably a Submicro wave (3) within Micro wave ((C)).  So tomorrow, and perhaps Friday, we should get some sideways and up action to complete Minuette wave (b).  From there, we'll see if the triangle remains on track.  Minuette wave (c) should decline modestly, and stay above the Minuette wave (a) low in the 1174 area.  I expect tightening sideways action in the market into the new year. 

We can maneuver in and out of the short term ups and downs all day, but the key is the bigger picture.  Looking at the decline from 1227 it looks choppy with several overlapping waves.  This means it's a correction.  Just like the decline from the highs this April, we don't want to get too caught up in a Primary wave ((3)) outlook simply because we want it to be a Primary wave ((3)).  Only a break below 1129.24 would get me thinking about this even being a possibility.  But right now, the decline from the highs looks choppy, and regardless of how Minute wave ((iv)) unfolds, the bottom line is that EWP is telling us it's all part of a correction. Trade accordingly.

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The euro appears to have found support at the 1.30 area and might be in a corrective rally phase for a few days.  With it possibly being in a Minor wave 3 down right now, I wouldn't get too cute and play the upside here in my opinion.  The larger trend and path of least resistance is firmly down.  The weekly RSI is still far from the oversold territory it usually gets into before establishing a major low.  But some shorter term RSI data suggest the euro is oversold so a short term pop may occur for a few days.  As long as it stays below the Minor wave 2 high I have posted above, I would short rallies.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

1174 Remains Key Resistance for Stocks; Euro Continues Lower in Minor Wave 3

Internals today were a bit interesting in that we had a big surge in volume with 1.5 billion shares traded on the NYSE.  What’s more significant is that the bears were in control most of the day on that big volume.  So the bears flexed their muscle today.  Also, S&P decliners far exceeded advancers at the close.  The bulls have tried a few times recently to push this market higher when it’s down in order to establish 1174 as the bottom, but the bears are just too strong right now and keep winning the battles.  And it’s looking like another test of 1174 might be coming soon, and as I’ve said before, triple bottoms are extremely rare so I would expect 1174 to be taken out rather easily. This suggests that my triangle count is wrong and that a zig-zag or combination correction for Minute wave ((iv)) is occurring instead.  So a rally should occur quite soon if my triangle count is to remain on track.

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If the market is in fact in a triangle for Minute wave ((iv)) then Minuette wave (b) higher needs to get moving tomorrow.  Right now, this count is looking suspect, and I'm hoping to get a big move in any direction soon so I can either keep or eliminate this count.  This triangle is becoming quite long in time and is not progressing as one would expect.  Tomorrow should be telling.  Another move lower should test and break the 1174 area and open up the 1150-1160 area next.  Only a break below 1129.24 would signal that perhaps something much bigger than just a correction was occurring.

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The euro continues to weaken as expected.  The GBP/USD and AUD/USD look like they may be bottoming, so a euro rally would not be a surprise.  But keep in mind, if the euro is in a Minor wave 3 down against the US dollar then there is much more potential lower for the euro ahead.  And I would definitely NOT get long the euro here, that’s for sure.  I see no reason to abandon the bearish stance on the euro, or the bullish stance on the US dollar at this point.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Stocks Need to Move Higher Now if in a Triangle; Euro Still Looking Very Weak

Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving holiday like I did.  I'm sure I've put on a couple thousand pounds this past week seeing as that I have to basically just "roll" myself around from point A to point B instead of walking.  Apparently I'm not the only one, market participants must have also still been recovering from the Thanksgiving holiday today because volume was quite light as it was well under 1 billion shares traded on the NYSE.  The market rallied back in the late day trading but the S&P decliners still closed quite heavy for the day.  Looking at just internals and market behavior alone, this market looks weak and should continue lower beneath the support level of 1174 in the S&P this week.  But looking at the wave count, it suggests just the opposite for the short term, and today's strength in financials MAY be a sign of a big rally tomorrow.

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If the stock market is in a Minute wave ((iv)) triangle then it is certainly testing our patience.  A break below the Minuette wave (a) low today would have made the triangle very unlikely.  But the decline today stopped just short of that level before mounting a nice rally into the close.  According to the wave count I'm projecting, we should get a push up to the 1210-1220 area for Minuette wave (b) of the triangle.  From there we'll get a modest decline for Minuette (c).   A strong decline below the Minuette wave (a) low at 1173 would make the overall decline look more like a combination correction (WXY) than a triangle, and that we'll get more weakness into at least the 1150-1160 area quite soon.  Only a decline below 1129.24 would remove the corrective decline scenarios from the table and suggest that something much bigger to the downside is occurring.

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The euro continues to fulfill the bearish forecast I've been mentioning here for a while now.  The typical Thanksgiving weakness did not fail to disappoint this year as the euro has pretty much declined the entire week.  I'm posting the daily chart above to keep focus on the bigger picture which has the euro setup for a Minor wave 3 down right now.  If correct, the trend is firmly down and getting caught up in the short term fluctuations would be foolish in my view.  The euro is heading lower and the dollar is heading higher.  Only a break above the Minor wave 2 high at 1.3785 in the euro would sound the caution alarms for the bears.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Turkey Update!!

I've started my Thanksgiving with family and friends already, so today's post will be brief.  I'll be back  Monday.  Happy Thanksgiving all!!

Today's internals show a very bullish day right in line with price, however volume was obviously low with the day just before Thanksgiving.  The flip flop nature of the market and internals the past week or so is symbolic of a triangle which I'm counting for Minute wave ((iv)).

The market rallied strong off the descending trendline that I've been tracking the past few days as expected.  Today's rally should continue Friday and maybe early next week to complete Subminuette wave c of Minuette wave (b) within the Minute wave ((iv)) triangle.  My target area of Subminuette wave c to top is at the 1214 area of the S&P.  The triangle scenario suggests a net sideways move for the next several weeks, so be positioned accordingly, at least until the triangle scenario is complete, or busted.

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Despite the stock market's strength, the euro remained weak as well, and the US dollar strong.  The typical Thanksgiving time euro weakness and dollar strength is back in action this year.  Although it appears Minuette wave (i) might be complete since 5 waves can now be counted down from the Minor wave 2 high.  So a sharp Minuette wave (ii) rally MAY be on the horizon.  I certainly would not get long the euro here, but for those who want to enter short, or add to their shorts, you might have an opportunity coming soon.  But the larger trend is still firmly down, so the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

Now go enjoy turkey time!!

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.