This Elliott Wave blog is dedicated to sharing Fibonacci ratios and other technical analysis for forex signals, index futures signals, options signals, and stock signals. Elliott Wave Principle puts forth that people move in predictive patterns, called waves. Identify the wave counts, and you can predict the market.
Nothing has changed in my outlook on stocks. They continue to trade heavy and the trend is still down. Some indicators are now oversold intraday, but there's usually a lot of divergence occuring before a meaningful bottom gets put in, and that's not there quite yet. Stocks may bounce in the very short term, but the trend remains firmly down regardless.
The euro appears to have finally topped and is now going to play catchup with stocks to the downside. Looking above at the 2hr euro chart you can see a strong rally leading into a head and shoulders topping pattern. This is a good sign the euro has toppped.
Another good sign the euro has topped is the impulsive decline it's tracing out from the high. Not only is there a clear small 5 waves from the top, but wave (iii) is an extremely sharp decline which is what we'd expect to see if the above count is correct. So the euro looks very weak and vulnerable here.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Stocks continue to trade horribly and so the downtrend remains well intact. The bulls were at it again today, trying to put a floor in this market and surge the market higher. However the rally stalled late in the morning and flip flopped around until eventually collapsing into the close. The buying power just isn't there, and yet there is no panic despite the constant selling pressure the past few weeks. Bottom lin: expect the market to continue lower for at least the short term as it keeps the trend of lower lows and lower highs intact.
The euro is still looking farely strong although starting to show signs of possible weakness. But right now they're only "possible signs" of weakness, nothing convincing. Momentum has started to diverge and the euro is having a hard time sustain its recent strength on the surges higher. Once I get a reversal bar or impulsive decline, I'd be slamming the short side on this.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Stocks continue to trade very heavy. The bulls attempted to put a floor in the market through the first half or so of the trading day but gave up as the close neared. The bears still have control and today's internals highlight that fact. Volume was modest at 954 million NYSE shares traded with 92% of stocks trading to the downside, and 449 of the S&P 500's stocks closing the day down. The selling in June is probably more than just some kind of new month profit taking since May failed the rally for the year. The decline has developed into a little more than that. But without a clear EWP count, I'm still cautious getting too excited and overleveraged on the bearish side here.
Without a clear impulsive count on the decline I have to use retraint on the short side. On the last swing high (3rd red line to the right on above chart) I thought shorting after that day's close was a good risk/reward opportunity on the short side since a new swing high failed to be established. That "bet" paid off well as the market has slid ever since. Late last week I thought taking profits on part of that short position to protect gains was a good idea. The market has continued lower though. But I would not close the rest of my short position here since there is no sign of a bottom. Granted, those signs often come in the overnight futures session and there's little one can do to protect themselves from a monster rally in the cash market first thing in the morning. But I'm going to play it tight and protect gains and simply trail this decline lower until I'm stopped out.
The play here is simple, as long as the market keeps making lower highs and lower lows, I want to remain short. If this is the big Primary wave ((3)) then there will be plenty of opportunities to pile on after we get some big impulsive wave counts. I don't want to get ahead of myself though, I want to trade what I see now, in the short term. And the short term action tells me to play it on the short side, with a small position, and have a quick trigger finger to stop/exit out of the position.
The euro has been a bit frustrating lately. Stocks have fallen and yet the euro has continued its rally. It's now very deep for the projected (c) wave of a flat correction so I'm not that confident in the count here. There's nothing suggesting the euro's rally is nearing an end other than this wave count. If the count is correct, there is little room for the euro to move any higher. As a euro bear I'd like to see it reverse lower very soon to keep this count in play.
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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
