Stocks Pushing the Bears to Limit; Euro Setup in Place

Stocks are pushing the proposed Minor wave 2 to the limit.  I am not a blind and dumb EWP follower that just falls in with the mass herd of wavers, I know this count has now become unlikely.  But on the flipside, many momentum indicators are waning, and the rally from the Minor 1 low is choppy and overlapping, which all suggests it's a correction.  So is it wise to get long here?  I don't think so.  If anything. the risk/reward favors the bears here.  Shorting now can leave us with a stop just above 1422.38, risking about 18 points to make hundreds if the wave count above is correct.  Other than that, I see no reason to take a position in this market at the moment.

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As for the EUR/USD, I'm keeping it simple as I usually do.  The rally may be faultering here, but the series of higher highs and higher lows is still intact.  So I want to wait for that uptrend to break down before getting short.  A nice break of 1.2242 should break the uptrend and result in more heavy selling to new lows.  I have a sell order in at 1.2230 which will execute a protective stop order at 1.2400.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Stocks Testing Wave Count; Euro Bullish Short Term

Stocks have continued higher, much further and long than I expected.  My stops have been broken numerous times and my frustration with stocks continues.  Without a new high above 1422, the above count remains intact.  The risk/reward favors the bears.

There a few momentum divergences in place with the new highs achieved over the past few weeks, but this one is the most compelling for the bears in my opinion.  The SPY (tracks S&P) has had its volume fall off a cliff while price has made several new highs.  This doesn't mean a top is in, but it does mean that there will most likely be a sharp and deep decline once price finally does top.

The 3-Year Rally: It doesn't have to end this way.  Or does it?

I thought the euro had completed its upward correction and was on its decent to new lows again last week.  But on the 4 hour chart there is a big bullish reverals candlestick that give me pause.  I would have to conclude that a bottom is in for the euro for the time being, and getting long for a short term trade seems wise as long as 1.2240 holds.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.