Closing Remainder of USDCAD Position

I'm closing the remainder of my USDCAD position at a 58 pip profit. I'm too close to my profit target level to let a gap down Sunday afternoon ruin a good trade.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Closing Half USDCAD Position at 50 Pip Profit

Taking some profits off the table after a nice push higher in the USDCAD and moving the stop loss to breakeven, locking in a decent 50 pip profit on half a position and now targeting 1.3050:

Take profit on half position at 1.3015
Move stop loss to breakeven at 1.2965
Move profit target on remaining position to 1.3050


ORIGINAL POST ON THE TRADE:

The dollar decline looks extended in both the USDCHF and USDCAD.  Both triggered buy signals in my proprietary indicators last night and both have mature wave counts on a short term basis.  I see a wave iv unraveling in a Flat Correction with wave ((c)) in full force now which here which should push the pair up to the between the 23% and 38% Fibonacci retracement levels, and also to the area of the prior 4th wave as well between 1.3036-1.3106.  Stop loss would be at the wave iii low at 1.2922.  Here is my trade:

Long now at 1.2965 (correction made - note chart price level)
Stop loss at 1.2920
Profit Target at 1.3065 

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signal - Long LNKD

Linkedin fell off a cliff a few weeks ago and was met with heavy volume and at least a temporary
bottom. After correcting higher it has traversed sideways and into a buy signal on my proprietary indicators. I don't like to go into a trade just based on the signal, I need the wave count and price action to support the signal. Up until today, LNKD showed more weakness relative to the rest of the market until today where it has popped and held at a 2.5% rally. I like this price action  now and the wave count suggesting an impulsive wave C higher. from current levels

Using the Fibonacci retracement of wave (3) and the ratio analysis of wave A, I project  move to the confluence of resistance at $136-$159.  I want enter only half of my normal position size in case save B down unfolds a little further so I can add to my position at a better price later.  Here is my trade:

Buy April 29 112 Call at -$8.80

Sell April 29 132 Call at +$2.04

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - USDCAD Long Trade

The dollar decline looks extended in both the USDCHF and USDCAD.  Both triggered buy signals in my proprietary indicators last night and both have mature wave counts on a short term basis.  I see a wave iv unraveling in a Flat Correction with wave ((c)) in full force now which here which should push the pair up to the between the 23% and 38% Fibonacci retracement levels, and also to the area of the prior 4th wave as well between 1.3036-1.3106.  Stop loss would be at the wave iii low at 1.2922.  Here is my trade:

Long now at 1.2965 (correction made - note chart price level)
Stop loss at 1.2920
Profit Target at 1.3065 

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Blog Futures Signals - S&P Futures Chart

I wish I had something really cool and insightful to say this morning, but I don't. A  pretty uneventful overnight session and it is leading into what looks like is going to be an uneventful US Friday session.  The same parameters hold from yesterday in that wave iii should continue higher toward the Fibonacci extension levels of wave i marked at 2042.75, 2065.75, 2095 and 2127.50 (see chart).  Most likely, wave iii will end around upper channel resistance and the Fibonacci extension of 161%, giving an estimated stopping area of around 2075-2100.  This should occur as long as 1958 remains intact.  The reason for that is because that will break the series of higher lows that have been in place for several weeks, and because it will be very difficult to create a viable impulsive wave count from the wave C low at the 1802.50 if price goes below 1958.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Stock Signals - UNG Trade Update

I wanted to give a quick update to my long call spread on UNG. UNG popped over 3% today after a volatile session and is showing signs of a bullish breakout.  Attached is an updated chart that shows a nice breakout above an upper channel of resistance, a retest of that resistance which became support, then a resumption higher.  Price has paused at the 38% Fibonacci level but will continue higher toward the 50% Fibonacci level ($7.14) at a minimum.  The price action I described around the upper channel line is indicative of a breakout.  So although that would most likely mean my wave count is wrong and that wave 5 is complete, it still means higher levels in the near future.

Unfortunately the way this spread was setup, the sooner that happens the smaller the profit. But, whenever price hits my target, around $7.10, I will take profits even if they will be fairly small.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Futures Signals - S&P Futures

The S&P is bouncing along lower channel support, which means it is establishing that as a key level.  Preferably, I would like to see that support hold (no solid 4hr close beneath it) to keep the bullish count intact.  We're reaching a point where I'll have to continue drilling down with the series of 1st and 2nd waves which, in my experience, often means I'm trying to fit an impulsive rally into a correction.  But, as long as channel support holds and especially 1958, it means the series of higher highs and higher lows is intact and therefore a clear uptrend is in play.  The Fed news is behind us so we can go back to focusing on charts and technicals that brings us success.

I still expect the S&P to shoot up to the 2075-2100 rather quickly from here.

On another note, the AUDNZD shot up and took out my adjusted stop loss at break even, then dropped down to my target overnight in the London session, leaving me out of the trade for 0 pips.  Very frustrating to say the least.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - AUDNZD in the Profit, Adjusting Trade

The AUDNZD trade is working out very nicely as it sharply moved me 50 pips into the profit column and tested the wave (a) low. I expect continuation lower but I want to move my profit target up a little and move my stop to prevent a loss at this point:

Moving stop to breakeven at 1.1245

Moving profit target up to 1.1160

HERE IS THE ORIGINAL POST FROM THIS MORNING WITH TRADE SETUP:

AUDNZD is severely overbought and my proprietary indicators just gave another sell signal in the London session.  Yesterday I tried a sell stop strategy as I wanted to see the selling continue into the US session. Instead, a very sharp rally occurred to a new high, eliminating the current sell signal.  This morning we have a similar setup today.  Only after that sharp rally yesterday, only a minor new high was made before selling pressure entered this market.  This pair is trading very heavy and should fall hard soon.

In addition, the Elliott Wave count shows a Flat Correction is occurring with yesterday's rally to a new high being wave (b).  The pair is currently in wave (c) down, which is an impulsive move and therefore very strong.  I'm looking for a move just below wave a, which is in line with Flat Correction rules, and to around the 23% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1140.  I always add a few pips to be safe, and to adjust for the spread.

Also keep in mind that the Fed is doing their thing today so this can cause this pair to really move later on today which fits well with my analysis calling for a sharp move lower in an impulsive wave (c).  Here's my trade setup:

Sell stop at 1.12450
Stop loss at 1.13250
Take profit at 1.1150

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Elliott Wave Index Futures - S&P

I just wanted to update my S&P futures chart.  Price dipped down to test the lower channel line like I anticipated in my post yesterday.  I see prices moving higher in a 3rd now.  Today's Fed meeting could be a good catalyst for that to occur.  I expect the usual whipsaw action around the meeting which is something I want nothing to do with and I usually try to close tight stop trades around this time.  I only have a long Natural Gas ETF position and a sell stop entry in place on the AUDNZD going into the meeting so I'm comfortable with that.

More after the government interferes with the free market later today...

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 PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signal - AUDNZD Short

AUDNZD is severely overbought and my proprietary indicators just gave another sell signal in the London session.  Yesterday I tried a sell stop strategy as I wanted to see the selling continue into the US session. Instead, a very sharp rally occurred to a new high, eliminating the current sell signal.  This morning we have a similar setup today.  Only after that sharp rally yesterday, only a minor new high was made before selling pressure entered this market.  This pair is trading very heavy and should fall hard soon.

In addition, the Elliott Wave count shows a Flat Correction is occurring with yesterday's rally to a new high being wave (b).  The pair is currently in wave (c) down, which is an impulsive move and therefore very strong.  I'm looking for a move just below wave a, which is in line with Flat Correction rules, and to around the 23% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1140.  I always add a few pips to be safe, and to adjust for the spread.

Also keep in mind that the Fed is doing their thing today so this can cause this pair to really move later on today which fits well with my analysis calling for a sharp move lower in an impulsive wave (c).  Here's my trade setup:

Sell stop at 1.12450
Stop loss at 1.13250
Take profit at 1.1150


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 PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Option/Stock Signal - UNG Long is Active

The UNG popped big this morning almost 4% and I definitely didn't want to get long there. It has since pulled back almost 1.5% so I got long a full call spread position as stated in my previous post:

The natural gas ETF (UNG) is really testing my trading discipline as it closed two days in a row right on the confirmation level of my proprietary indicators, and also did not close above the upper end of the trend channel.  So I'm a bit apprehensive here.  With the heavy news hitting the wires this week, and the fact that this ETF can really move fast, I want to get some exposure to a long trade here. If I like the open tomorrow morning I plan to go long with with only half of my normal position size with the following setup:

Long Call Vertical Spread:

Buy April 29 call at 6.5 cost of $0.46

Sell April 29 call at 7.5 collect $0.14

I'm looking for a move to around $7.30 which will target a 100%-165% profit on this spread.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signal - AUDNZD Sell Stop Order Cancelled

Looks like acknowledging the importance of the different forex sessions and their relative signals was crucial in approaching this trade. I wanted the US session to confirm the sell signal from the London session before entering the trade. That did not happen and so I did not get short. As a result, the pair shot up to a new high, completely invalidating the trade....for now.  The pair is over ought and is wrapping up a five wave rally so I'm still looking for an opportunity to get short.

ORIGINAL POST:

On the 1hr AUDNZD chart you can see that the pair is wrapping up a large 5 wave rally, and is currently in a wave ((iv)) that should bring the pair down to the 1.1048 level.  This looks to be a (c) wave so it should be quite sharp, and so the fact that my proprietary indicators triggered a short signal early this morning tells me we'll get a nice move lower soon.

Overnight signals are reliable, although they are not the most reliable.  So I want to see some follow-through to the downside in the US session.  So I'm going to short on a new low and further weakness only.  If a new low occurs in the US session, I'm looking for a sharp move lower to the 38% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1050-1.1100.  Here's my trade:

Sell stop at 1.1200
Stop 1.1295
Profit Target 1.1100

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 PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Index Futures

The stock market appears to be headed towards channel line support of waves ((i)) and ((ii)) around 1992 before resuming its uptrend.  1957 is a key level for the S&P futures as it holds the series of higher lows in place, and therefore holds the uptrend in place.  Until that break occurs, I will continue looking for higher levels in the stock market.

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 PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signal - AUDNZD Short

On the 1hr AUDNZD chart you can see that the pair is wrapping up a large 5 wave rally, and is currently in a wave ((iv)) that should bring the pair down to the 1.1048 level.  This looks to be a (c) wave so it should be quite sharp, and so the fact that my proprietary indicators triggered a short signal early this morning tells me we'll get a nice move lower soon.

Overnight signals are reliable, although they are not the most reliable.  So I want to see some follow-through to the downside in the US session.  So I'm going to short on a new low and further weakness only.  If a new low occurs in the US session, I'm looking for a sharp move lower to the 38% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1050-1.1100.  Here's my trade:

Sell stop at 1.1200
Stop 1.1295
Profit Target 1.1100


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 PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Stock and Option Signal - UNG Long

The natural gas ETF (UNG) is really testing my trading discipline as it closed two days in a row right on the confirmation level of my proprietary indicators, and also did not close above the upper end of the trend channel.  So I'm a bit apprehensive here.  With the heavy news hitting the wires this week, and the fact that this ETF can really move fast, I want to get some exposure to a long trade here. If I like the open tomorrow morning I plan to go long with with only half of my normal position size with the following setup:

Long Call Vertical Spread:

Buy April 29 call at 6.5 cost of $0.46

Sell April 29 call at 7.5 collect $0.14

I'm looking for a move to around $7.30 which will target a 100%-165% profit on this spread.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Stock Signal - CHGG

I posted a bullish setup on Chegg last week and said I was waiting for a confirmation signal to get
long. The long signal was triggered on Friday's close but unfortunately there is no viable option strategy to place. The risk/reward is far from desirable so I will not trade it. However, I do anticipate a move towards $5.50 which closes a gap and also hits the 61% Fibonacci retracement level.  This move should occur within a month which would be about a 15% gain rather quickly. This trade would be invalidated if the stock makes a new low, which is real far away and so also doesn't make a desirable straight up stock play either.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Index Futures

Looks like some soft pullback will occur here. I'm looking at the prior 4th waves in conjunction with Fibonacci retracement levels 23% and 38%.  The rolling over nature of the correction so far could be a concern if it's indicative of a sharp downward correction soon.  Until that happens, I'm looking for just some small pullback to the 1990-2000 area before the strong uptrend resumes.

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 PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.