Tuesday, June 19, 2012
I'm going to continue to be very busy the next week or so, so I'm just posting a quick update here and will be back when significant market action occurs.
The S&P is nearing the end of Minor wave 2. This simply means that a big, sharp and fast Minor wave 3 down is coming soon. There are no real signs of a top yet, but when a reversal pattern forms, the risk/reward would favor the bears to jump in aggressively short. I'm simply looking to short on rallies at this point. The S&P should not exceed 1422.38 if the above wave count is to remain valid. So my stop is just above that level.
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The euro did the opposite of what I projected in last post. I projected a resumption of the downtrend but instead it rallied hard to a new high. I'm unsure if a top is in now, but the larger trend is down so I'm indeed looking for a top so I can reshort. This week's high was not exceeded on today's rally and the 4 hour chart shows a reversal candlestick. I feel it's worth the risk/reward here for the bears to short against the high at 1.2747. The risk is fairly tight, and if a top is in, the euro will far hard and fast to a new low.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.