Elliott Wave Forex Signals - GBPNZD Update

I'm closed half my position at 2.0322 at a 103 pip profit and moved my stop loss to break even on the rest of the trade.  Although I think this pair can get to 2.0700, it is not in my trading plan to wait for that to get hit. Instead I am looking to close the remainder of my position at 2.0375.

HERE IS THE ORIGINAL TRADE SETUP:

The GBPNZD has been destroyed the past few weeks and a short term correction is due.  As you can see from my wave count, the pair has completed two 5-wave impulsive declines within an Intermediate wave (3) down.  A sharp wave ((ii)) is in order from current levels which is supported by the bunching up of price action between 2.0000 and 2.0250, and also since my custom indicator triggered a long signal that was just recently confirmed on the recent price action higher.  This pair really moves wildly so I'm taking it slow and safe with just 1/3 position:

Long at 2.0219, profit target now of  2.0500 and stop at 1.9950.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Short OKE and JCI

ONEOK Inc. (OKE) has been on a monster bull run but price action, the wave count, and my custom indicators are telling me that a pullback in on the horizon.  Since the ((iv)) bottom, wave ((v)) of 5 has push price significantly higher, but in a much more choppy manner.  In addition, price appears to be rolling over in conjunction with a confirmed sell signal on my custom indicators.  I think a decline to around the $40 is in the cards in the next few weeks.  Here is the trade.

Buy to open OKE  July 15  40/45 put spread for $1.43

Johnson Controls Inc. (JCI) has also been on a monster bull run.  But price action, momentum, the wave count, and my custom indicators, all suggest at least a short term top and pull back is imminent.  It appears the move will be a Minor wave 2 which means it should be a sharp and deep affair.  I'm targeting the 61% Fibonacci retracement level around $62 for now.  Here's the trade:

Buy to open JCI  July 15  41/45 put spread for $1.25

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures Analysis

The S&P's sharp reversal is indicative of a 2nd wave rally.  So I adjusted the wave count a bit to account for this action today.  Wave (ii) does not appear complete, and today's move was probably just wave a, and most likely tomorrow we will see a choppy or flat downward move for wave b.  To support the fact that more rallying is in the cards, my custom indicators signaled a VIX sell signal starting yesterday on the 130min chart (1/3 of the US cash session).  That bearish signal was confirmed at the end of trading today with a price close beneath my signal line.  This signals a bullish move for stocks overall for the next few days.  I'm projecting the wave (ii) rally to end around the 2080-2090 area.

The only issue I see here is that VIX buy signals, and sharp rallies like we saw today, often also accompany strong 3rd wave moves.  Since the market is lining up for wave ((c)) down, which is also considered a 3rd wave, then it is possible the market action I noted previously is extraordinarily bearish.  This is less likely to occur though, so it is not my primary analysis and projection.  I am sticking with the hard facts, and those are that the structure of price action supports my wave count, and that a VIX S&P buy signal has been confirmed.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Closed MIDD at 72% Profit

Middleby (MIDD) dropped over 5% today putting me in a 72% profit in less than a day so I closed the position and skipped away into the horizon.  Here is the trade summary.

Closed Jul 15 115/125 put vertical at $5.10 (bought at $2.96) for a 72% profit.  

The original trade setup was in yesterday's post just below this post.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - WentShort NOC and MIDD

I went short Northrup Grumman Corp (NOC) at the close today.  This stock has been on fire the past few months and price action suggests exhaustion.  After the wave wave (3) high, price limped up to test that high in wave B, and has started to falter ever since.  In addition, my custom indicators have confirmed a sell signal on the stock, so this seems like a great opportunity to put on a short trade.  Here's the trade:

Buy to open July 15  210/220 put vertical at $3.68

I also went short Middleby Corp. (MIDD) at the close today as well.  This stock has also been in fire the last few months, although the structure of this really could be interpreted as a 3 wave correction.  If so, this stock is in some serious trouble moving forward.  But this is a much longer term timeframe than what I trade, although if true it would still trade in my direction - down.  I believe it's more likely and more conducive to sound analysis and trading to count it as a bullish move ending with Minor wave 1.  Minor wave 2 down is now unfolding, and it should be a sharp and deep affair.  I'm projecting it will get to the $114-$116 area within the next few weeks.  Here's the trade:

Buy to open July 15  115/125 put vertical at $2.96

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Going Long GBPNZD

The GBPNZD has been destroyed the past few weeks and a short term correction is due.  As you can see from my wave count, the pair has completed two 5-wave impulsive declines within an Intermediate wave (3) down.  A sharp wave ((ii)) is in order from current levels which is supported by the bunching up of price action between 2.0000 and 2.0250, and also since my custom indicator triggered a long signal that was just recently confirmed on the recent price action higher.  This pair really moves wildly so I'm taking it slow and safe with just 1/3 position:

Long at 2.0219, profit target now of  2.0500 and stop at 1.9950.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures Analysis

The market has been under continued selling pressure and appears to be reaching a short term bottom, if not already established at today's low.  I base this on a few reasons: 1) the S&P made a short new low while the Russell 2000 futures did not, 2) the current decline looks impulse has completed a 5 wave down move within a larger degree ((c)) wave down; and, 3 my custom indicators confirmed a buy signal on the VIX at the close today on the hourly chart.

First, attached is a wave count which counts a 5 wave decline complete at today's low at the Subminuette level.  This completes Minuette wave (i) of Minute wave ((c)) of Minor wave 2.  That may sound confusing, but the chart tells it all to where it makes more sense.  With 5 waves down complete, I want to look to my custom indicators to see if I have any intraday oversold indications, or even better, if a long signal has been confirmed, so that I can be more certain the current decline is due for a correction right now.  Looking at the hourly chart of the VIX attached you can see that a sell signal initiated last Friday and continued on almost all throughout the trading day today. But the sell signal is only confirmed when it closes beneath the signal magenta colored line, which happened right at the close today.  A sell signal in VIX is a buy signal in the S&P, so I'm expecting a sharp shot higher for a good 20+ points for Minuette wave (ii) soon, that should last for at least 2-3 days.

So those are two solid pieces of evidence that tells me to be cautious on the bearish side right now as it's likely a sharp rally is on the horizon.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures Updated Chart

The S&P's finally snapped and are moving towards my target just below 2000.  This is a wave ((c)) so it's impulsive and should unfold in a clean 5 waves.  So plan accordingly.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.