Elliott Wave Futures - S&P Futures (ES)

I keep trying to develop a viable bearish count, meaning that the rally over the past several months is just a correction. I can do it if I just look at labeling waves just a few months back, but when including the entire history of the S&P, I find it very difficult.  All I am left with is two different degrees of bullish counts that look like higher levels are right around the corner.  With the jobs number coming out tomorrow, we could get a sharp pop higher and then reversal in the same day.  As long as 2008 remains intact, I remain cautiously bullish.

However, I do note that now 127 stocks on my proprietary indicators have sell signals while only 12 have long signals. This is a very strong indication that a pullback is close.

Here is an alternate count with larger degree waves.  Looking at some channel and wave ratio analysis, the projected target for wave 5 is about 2100.  This fits well with my projection several weeks ago and is a nice round number for resistance.

So, both counts are bullish in the short term, but both are 5th waves so I would be looking for weakness after a sharp burst higher.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Short Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN)

Tyson Foods (TSN) has a really nice setup here for a large gain.  You can see the labored action in wave 5, similar to an ending diagonal, which means a sharp shot downward could be coming soon.  This would also be a second wave in wave (2) which also lends itself to a sharp move lower.  I'm targeting the $62.50 area which would bring about a an 85% gain if I wait until expiration, which I probably won't.  Regardless, if price hits there sooner I wills till be looking at a 35%-60% profit sometime in April.  Here's the exact trade:

Buy to Open TSN May 20  60/70 Put

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Short Waste Connections Inc. (WCN)

More and more stocks are hitting bearish signals and exhibiting overbought conditions which lend to my theory that my bullish wave count of the stock market is in jeopardy.  Here I see WCN hitting a wave c of (ii) down towards the $62.50 level.  This option trade is low risk, but as a result, returns would be small as well.  Here is the trade I made:

Buy to Open WCN May 20  60/65 put

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Futures - S&P (ES)

So after my expression of doubt on the S&P bullish case, the market undergoes about a 30 point rally between yesterday and today.  I altered the count to support a continued uptrend, and also moved up the breaking point for the bullish case to 2008.  This is the high of wave i, it is also a swing low for wave iv, and so price should not come down to break that level.  I know that it won't break any EWP rules at this point if it does since wave v has already made a new high, but you'll notice that price has fallen outside of the channel and should be a wave 3 at multiple degrees.  Since price behavior is not consistent with that, I am not going to give the market much leeway to continue under performing.

I remain cautiously bullish the stock market as long as 2008 is not broken.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - GBPJPY Short

The GBPJPY and EURJPY are set up nicely for declines here.  I see the GBPJPY as further extended and a better trading opportunity though.  The wave count suggests a pullback is warranted and there is a confluence of support around the 161 area which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and the area of the previous 4th wave.  So I want to get short with a target near those levels.  Here is my trade:

Short now at 161.88
Stop loss at 162.50
Profit target at 161.30

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Campbell Soup (CPB)

Campbell Soup (CPB) is in a similar scenario as BKH in that it is about to undergo a C wave within a 2nd wave.  Here we have wave (c) within wave ((ii)).  I uses wave relationship Fibonacci analysis between wave (a) and (c) as well as Fibonacci retracement levels of wave ((i)) and we can see a confluence of support between $61 - $62, so my target will probably be in that area.  I placed a vertical put option spread for this trade:

Buy to open May 20  60/65 Put


Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Black Hills Corp (BKH)

Black Hills Corp. is in a wave (ii) within a larger bullish move.  More importantly, it is in wave c of wave (ii), which is an impulsive affair, and therefore should be quite sharp.  Using wave analysis comparing wave A to wave C, and Fibonacci retracements of wave (i), I see a confluence of support between $56 - $57, so my target will lie somewhere in that area.  I placed a put option vertical spread:

Buy to open May 20  55/60 Put


Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Futures S&P - ES

The bullish case is unraveling.  Here are the reasons why:

1) Wave ((4)) has not overlapped with wave ((1)), invalidating the count on a short term basis.
2) I would have to rework the count to an even larger group of 1 and 2 waves which is unlikely to be accurate.
3) The current action is not consistent with a wave 3 at multiple degrees.
4) My proprietary indicators show sell signals on 119 stocks and buy signals on only 20 stocks.

I think this bullish wave count on the S&P is about to be busted.  I am now looking for weakness in the stock market and will be looking for an opportunity to develop a bearish wave count.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - USDCAD 50 Profit Trade

I just wanted to follow-up on my 50 pip trade setup on the USDCAD.  As you can see, a sharp move down through the 38% Fibonacci retracement level occurred, which means it hit my target of 1.3200 giving me a nice 50 pip profit from over the weekend.

HERE IS THE POST WITH THE ORIGINAL TRADE SETUP:

The USDCAD appears to have extended too far and is in a topping formation. I'm unsure if it is a long term top that marks the start of a resumption of the downtrend, or if it is just a short term pullback.  So I placed the Fibonacci retracement levels in place for wave c to project a short term target area:

Shorted now at 1.3253
Stop loss at 1.3300
Profit target at 1.3205

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.